Alftanes – Arborg

Model: TIPPSH

Alftanes vs Arborg

PREDICTION
1
@ 2.49
StatusUpcoming
KickoffGiu 23, 2026 11:15 PM
ResultPending
StartStarts in 4h 19m
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.49% · n=1025
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.49% · n=1025
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 2h 27m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Alftanes. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Alftanes

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

39/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.81First seen
Current2.51Now
Max odds2.52Highest point
Min odds1.81Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

AlftanesHOME
VS
ArborgAWAY
WWWWW
Recent form
WLWWD
Avg goals scored
2.80
3.20
Defensive weakness
0.80
0.80
Shots on target for
8.20
7.20
SoT conceded pressure
2.80
6.00
Home splitW-W-W-W3.75 scored / 1.00 conceded
Away splitL-W-D-W1.25 scored / 1.25 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.49. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 2.49% based on n=1025 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Iceland 4 Deild (is). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd2.49
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 2.49% · n=1025
V4 BandMEDIUMROI 2.49% · n=1025
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

While the odds remain elevated, the underlying metrics suggest the selection may be more competitive than the market implies. The confidence profile is moderate, so the pick has statistical support but should not be treated as a low-risk prediction. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Alftanes's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.
3D: -100.0% 7D: -2.3% 15D: -2.6% 30D: -1.3%
Model insight

Alftanes – Arborg Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.49. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 2.49% and 2.49%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Active Similar Predictions
MatchPickOddExp. ROIKickoff
Nordic United FC - IK Oddevold12.602.49%27 Jun 17:00
Pick
1 @ 2.49
Kickoff
Giu 23, 2026 11:15 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 2.49% • n=1025
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
2.49% • n=1025
Start
Starts in 4h 19m
Updated
Updated 2h 27m ago
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