Arda Kardzhali – Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia

Model: TIPPSH

Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia

PREDICTION
1
@ 1.83
StatusUpcoming
KickoffAgo 17, 2026 10:15 PM
ResultPending
StartStarts in 2d 23h
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.37% · n=795
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.37% · n=795
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 1d ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Arda Kardzhali. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Arda KardzhaliGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.007 | A: -0.013

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

34/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.73First seen
Current1.83Now
Max odds1.83Highest point
Min odds1.73Lowest point
VolatilityMediumStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Arda KardzhaliHOME
VS
Lokomotiv 1929 SofiaAWAY
WLWDL
Recent form
LDLDW
Avg goals scored
1.00
1.20
Defensive weakness
0.80
1.60
Shots on target for
4.00
5.20
SoT conceded pressure
2.60
6.80
Home splitW-D-W-D-L1.00 scored / 0.40 conceded
Away splitD-D-L-D-W1.40 scored / 1.40 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.83. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 3.37% based on n=795 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Bulgaria First League (bg). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Medium volatility.

Pick1
Odd1.83
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 3.37% · n=795
V4 BandMEDIUMROI 3.37% · n=795
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

The odds suggest a balanced contest, but recent performance data slightly favors Arda Kardzhali. The model gives this selection a reasonable profile, although the confidence level remains measured.

Current Combo momentum is positive. Recent Combo selections remain profitable across multiple recent windows, indicating stable short-term performance.
3D: -4.1% 7D: 6.8% 15D: 13.9% 30D: 10.6%
Model insight

Arda Kardzhali – Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.83. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 3.37% and 3.37%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample283
Win Rate52.7%
Profit+0.80u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
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WINKairat Almaty (W) - Kaisar Kyzylorda (W)1.963.37%
WINCruzeiro - Mirassol1.763.37%
WINBFC Daugavpils - Tukums 20001.753.37%
LOSSRennes - Brentford2.063.37%
WINBayern Munich - Aston Villa1.923.37%
LOSSBeitar Jerusalem - AEK Larnaca1.953.37%
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Pick
1 @ 1.83
Kickoff
Ago 17, 2026 10:15 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 3.37% • n=795
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
3.37% • n=795
Start
Starts in 2d 23h
Updated
Updated 1d ago
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