Atletico Nacional (W) – Independiente Medellin (W)

Model: TIPPSH

Atletico Nacional (W) – Independiente Medellin (W)

PREDICTION
1
@ 1.78
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 02, 2026 12:30 AM
ResultWIN1 - 0
StartStarted 25d 3h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.31% · n=212
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.31% · n=212
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 26d 2h ago

Team Form & Goal Trends

Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.

Metric Atletico Nacional (W) Independiente Medellin (W)
Last 5 form W-L-W L-W-L
Avg goals scored 2.00 1.67
Avg goals conceded 0.33 1.33
Home/Away form W-W (home) L-L (away)
Home/Away avg goals 3.00 scored / 0.00 conceded 1.00 scored / 2.00 conceded
Shots on target 6.67 for / 2.67 against 5.00 for / 6.33 against
Home/Away shots on target 7.50 for / 1.00 against (home) 4.00 for / 6.00 against (away)

AI Match Insight

The price is not extreme, and recent results provide a reasonable statistical basis for the pick. The confidence profile is moderate, so the pick has statistical support but should not be treated as a low-risk prediction. Atletico Nacional (W) has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.65First seen
Current1.78Now
Max odds1.78Highest point
Min odds1.65Lowest point
VolatilityMediumStable range
TrendRisingShort term
Model insight

Atletico Nacional (W) – Independiente Medellin (W) Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.78. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 4.31% and 4.31%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample224
Win Rate54.5%
Profit+7.07u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
WINVarnsdorf - Mladá Boleslav B1.893.37%
LOSSSouth Melbourne - Auckland FC II1.843.37%
WINJadran Dekani - NK Krka1.913.37%
LOSSNorth Sunshine Eagles - Langwarrin1.753.37%
LOSSCFR Cluj - FC Arges Pitesti1.853.37%
LOSSImisli - FK Karvan1.803.37%
WINKalmar FF - Degerfors1.953.37%
WINReal Monarchs SLC - Colorado Rapids II1.763.37%
Active Similar Predictions
MatchPickOddExp. ROIKickoff
Slask Wroclaw II - KKS 1925 Kalisz11.984.86%09 May 13:00
FC Spartak Trnava - MSK Zilina11.932.30%10 May 19:00
Pick
1 @ 1.78
Kickoff
Mag 02, 2026 12:30 AM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 4.31% • n=212
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
4.31% • n=212
Start
Started 25d 3h ago
Updated
Updated 26d 2h ago
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