Brusque – Ituano

Model: TipA1

Brusque vs Ituano

PREDICTION
2
@ 3.80
StatusUpcoming
KickoffLug 26, 2026 11:00 PM
ResultPending
StartStarts in 2d 18h
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.37% · n=123
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 6h 37m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Ituano. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: ItuanoGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

56/100
Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds3.19First seen
Current3.80Now
Max odds3.80Highest point
Min odds3.19Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

BrusqueHOME
VS
ItuanoAWAY
LWLWL
Recent form
LLDDD
Avg goals scored
1.00
0.60
Defensive weakness
1.20
1.20
Shots on target for
3.00
3.80
SoT conceded pressure
3.60
2.60
Home splitW-W-L-W-W1.80 scored / 0.60 conceded
Away splitL-D-L-W-L1.20 scored / 1.60 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 3.80. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.37% based on n=123 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Brazil Serie C (br). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2
Odd3.80
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.37% · n=123
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The current odds underline the speculative nature of the pick, particularly given the recent form imbalance. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 0.2% 7D: 35.3% 15D: 20.0% 30D: 24.4%
Model insight

Brusque – Ituano Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 3.80. This prediction is generated by the TipA1 model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 4.37% across 123 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample38
Win Rate31.6%
Profit+7.90u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
WINBarra Mansa - Buzios4.002.27%
LOSSSampaio Correa RJ - Resende RJ3.602.63%
LOSSNaestved - FC Helsingor3.752.27%
LOSSLASK Linz - Fortuna Dusseldorf3.902.27%
LOSSBrisbane Olympic FC (W) - Gold Coast United (W)4.002.27%
LOSSMarine - Colwyn Bay3.752.27%
LOSSClermont Foot - US Orleans 454.002.27%
WINUniversitatea Cluj - Nyiregyhaza Spartacus3.752.27%
Pick
2 @ 3.80
Kickoff
Lug 26, 2026 11:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 4.37% • n=123
Start
Starts in 2d 18h
Updated
Updated 6h 37m ago
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