Catania – Ascoli

Model: TIPPSA

Catania vs Ascoli

PREDICTION
2
@ 3.10
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 27, 2026 11:00 PM
ResultLOSS2 - 1
StartStarted 44d 21h ago
V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -1.07% · n=461
V4 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -4.49% · n=175
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 44d 23h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Ascoli. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Ascoli

Shots Rating

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

20/100
Poor value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.59First seen
Current3.11Now
Max odds3.48Highest point
Min odds2.57Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

CataniaHOME
VS
AscoliAWAY
WLDDD
Recent form
LWWDL
Avg goals scored
1.20
1.20
Defensive weakness
1.80
0.60
Shots on target for
3.80
6.60
SoT conceded pressure
3.80
1.60
Home splitW-D-D-L1.75 scored / 1.75 conceded
Away splitL-D-L-W1.00 scored / 0.75 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 3.10. The V4 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -4.49% based on n=175 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Italy Serie C Play-Offs (it). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2
Odd3.10
V2 BandNONEROI -1.07% · n=461
V4 BandNONEROI -4.49% · n=175
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

From a statistical perspective, the difference between the two teams may be smaller than the current price indicates. Confidence remains limited, so this should be read as a cautious lean rather than a strong prediction. Ascoli has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 25.3% 7D: 34.4% 15D: 22.6% 30D: 6.7%
Model insight

Catania – Ascoli Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 3.10. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show NONE confidence, with historical expected ROI values of -1.07% and -4.49%. Historical performance for this profile has been negative or unstable, so this signal should be treated with additional caution. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample56
Win Rate33.9%
Profit+1.96u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
WINAnapolis FC - Botafogo PB3.10-1.07%
WINFC Haka - KTP2.97-1.07%
LOSSValur Reykjavik - Keflavik2.93-1.07%
LOSSAvai - Cuiaba3.20-1.07%
WINSao Bernardo SP - EC Juventude3.22-1.07%
LOSSBelgrano (W) - CA Talleres de Cordoba (W)3.02-1.07%
LOSSBlacktown Spartans U20 - Bankstown City Lions U202.94-1.07%
LOSSDefensores de Belgrano VR - CA Douglas Haig2.86-1.07%
Pick
2 @ 3.10
Kickoff
Mag 27, 2026 11:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: NONE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI -1.07% • n=461
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
-4.49% • n=175
Start
Started 44d 21h ago
Updated
Updated 44d 23h ago
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