Cimarrones de Sonora FC vs Club Celaya
📊 Match Analysis
Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.
Game Context
The model side is Club Celaya. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.
Edge: Club CelayaValue Index
Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.
Odds Movement
📊 Team Form (Last 5)
Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.
Quick Analysis
The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 3.25. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 3.04% based on n=73 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Mexico Segunda Division (mx). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with High volatility.
AI Match Insight
While the odds remain elevated, the underlying metrics suggest the selection may be more competitive than the market implies. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive. Club Celaya has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.
Cimarrones de Sonora FC – Club Celaya Betting Analysis
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | Lincoln Red Imps FC - Inter Club d'Escaldes | 3.30 | 4.77% |
| LOSS | Dodoma Jiji FC - JKT Tanzania | 3.05 | 4.96% |
| LOSS | Ghana - Panama | 3.35 | 4.77% |
| LOSS | Australia (W) - Mexico (W) | 3.44 | 4.77% |
| LOSS | Santamarina Tandil - Kimberley Mar del Plata | 3.01 | 4.96% |
| LOSS | Egypt - Russia | 3.27 | 4.77% |
| LOSS | Rapid Vienna - SV Ried | 3.29 | 4.77% |
| WIN | America MG - Vila Nova | 3.33 | 3.84% |