Model: TIPPSA

America MG vs Vila Nova

PREDICTION

@ 3.21

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffMag 25, 2026 1:30 AM

ResultWIN1 - 2

StartStarted 47d 12h ago

V2 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 7.70% · n=151

V4 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 7.70% · n=151

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 47d 14h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Vila Nova. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Vila Nova

Shots Rating

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

63/100

Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds3.50First seen

Current3.35Now

Max odds3.53Highest point

Min odds3.35Lowest point

VolatilityMediumStable range

TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

America MGHOME

Vila NovaAWAY

LDLWL

Recent form

WWDLD

Avg goals scored

1.20

Defensive weakness

2.20

0.80

Shots on target for

3.60

SoT conceded pressure

5.20

3.20

Home splitL-W-L-D-W1.40 scored / 1.40 conceded

Away splitW-L-W-D-W1.60 scored / 1.20 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 3.21. The V4 confidence band is HIGH with an expected ROI of 7.70% based on n=151 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Brazil Serie B (br). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with Medium volatility.

Pick2

Odd3.21

V2 BandHIGHROI 7.70% · n=151

V4 BandHIGHROI 7.70% · n=151

Odds TrendDropping

VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

While the odds remain elevated, the underlying metrics suggest the selection may be more competitive than the market implies. The HIGH confidence band is important here: similar higher-priced setups have historically produced positive model results.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 46.5% 7D: 29.2% 15D: 24.7% 30D: 8.5%

Model insight

America MG – Vila Nova Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 3.21. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show HIGH confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 7.70% and 7.70%. Historical expected profitability for this profile has been well above average, although future outcomes remain sensitive to market and team-news conditions. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample5

Win Rate60.0%

Profit+4.26u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Bayer Leverkusen - RB Leipzig	3.00	6.31%
LOSS	Nantes (W) - Lyon (W)	3.01	6.31%
WIN	Strasbourg (W) - Le Havre (W)	3.02	5.70%
WIN	Girona - Real Betis	3.05	6.31%
WIN	NK Osijek - NK Varazdin	3.19	6.31%

Pick

2 @ 3.21

Kickoff

Mag 25, 2026 1:30 AM

Confidence

CONF: HIGH

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 7.70% • n=151

Confidence V4

CONF V4: HIGH

Exp. ROI V4

7.70% • n=151

Start

Started 47d 12h ago

Updated

Updated 47d 14h ago