Model: TipTromba2H

Curzon Ashton vs Alfreton Town

PREDICTION

@ 1.80

StatusUpcoming

KickoffAgo 08, 2026 6:00 PM

ResultPending

StartStarts in 1d 11h

V2 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 6.89% · n=604

V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 15m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Curzon Ashton. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Curzon AshtonGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.165 | A: -0.140

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

46/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds1.84First seen

Current1.80Now

Max odds1.84Highest point

Min odds1.80Lowest point

VolatilityLowStable range

TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Curzon AshtonHOME

Alfreton TownAWAY

LDDDL

Recent form

LLLLD

Avg goals scored

1.20

0.20

Defensive weakness

2.20

1.80

Shots on target for

4.20

1.80

SoT conceded pressure

3.60

6.20

Home splitL-D-L-L0.50 scored / 2.25 conceded

Away splitW-W2.50 scored / 1.50 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 1.80. The V2 confidence band is HIGH with an expected ROI of 6.89% based on n=604 historical similar picks. The match belongs to England Northern Premier League (gb). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with Low volatility.

Pick1

Odd1.80

V2 BandHIGHROI 6.89% · n=604

V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0

Odds TrendDropping

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

In a fairly competitive price range, recent form gives Curzon Ashton a useful statistical edge. The confidence band strengthens the case for the pick beyond the basic market price. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Curzon Ashton's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: -6.1% 7D: 32.7% 15D: 6.0% 30D: 13.3%

Model insight

Curzon Ashton – Alfreton Town Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 1.80. This prediction is generated by the TipTromba2H model profile. The V2 confidence band is HIGH, with a historical expected ROI of 6.89% across 604 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample240

Win Rate57.1%

Profit+8.99u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Rosenborg U19 - Molde U19	1.80	6.89%
WIN	Olimpia Grudziadz - OKS Swit Skolwin	1.80	7.35%
WIN	Podhale Nowy Targ - Chojniczanka Chojnice	1.80	6.89%
WIN	Shamrock Rovers - FK Egnatia	1.80	7.35%
WIN	Cliftonville (W) - Glentoran (W)	1.80	6.17%
WIN	Wigry Suwalki - LKS Lodz II	1.75	6.89%
LOSS	ABC U20 - Quinho FC U20	1.83	6.89%
WIN	Always Ready - Bolivar	1.90	7.35%

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Pick

1 @ 1.80

Kickoff

Ago 08, 2026 6:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: HIGH

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 6.89% • n=604

Start

Starts in 1d 11h

Updated

Updated 15m ago