Deportivo Maipu – Quilmes

Model: TipA1

Deportivo Maipu vs Quilmes

PREDICTION
2
@ 3.75
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffAgo 23, 2026 12:00 AM
ResultPending
StartStarted 6h 45m ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.37% · n=123
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 1d 19h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Quilmes. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: QuilmesGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.024 | A: 0.020

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

56/100
Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds3.23First seen
Current3.75Now
Max odds3.75Highest point
Min odds3.23Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Deportivo MaipuHOME
VS
QuilmesAWAY
WLWLD
Recent form
WDWDL
Avg goals scored
1.20
1.80
Defensive weakness
1.20
1.00
Shots on target for
4.60
5.40
SoT conceded pressure
4.00
3.00
Home splitW-D-W-D-L1.20 scored / 0.60 conceded
Away splitD-L-L-D-D0.80 scored / 1.40 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 3.75. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.37% based on n=123 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Argentina Nacional B (ar). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2
Odd3.75
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.37% · n=123
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The market prices Quilmes as an outsider, but recent form does not suggest a gap wide enough to completely dismiss the selection. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive.

Current Combo momentum is positive. Recent Combo selections remain profitable across multiple recent windows, indicating stable short-term performance.
3D: 29.5% 7D: 10.2% 15D: 3.5% 30D: 3.3%
Model insight

Deportivo Maipu – Quilmes Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 3.75. This prediction is generated by the TipA1 model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 4.37% across 123 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample69
Win Rate31.9%
Profit+13.95u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
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LOSSDoncaster - Barnsley3.502.63%
WINDingnan Ganlian FC - Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC3.502.63%
WINComercial U20 - Rio Branco SP U204.002.27%
WINKKS 1925 Kalisz - Notec Czarnkow3.904.73%
LOSSFK Graficar Beograd - Loznica3.754.37%
LOSSOrlando City SC - Real Salt Lake3.602.63%
LOSSCanvey Island - Brightlingsea Regent3.754.37%
Pick
2 @ 3.75
Kickoff
Ago 23, 2026 12:00 AM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 4.37% • n=123
Start
Started 6h 45m ago
Updated
Updated 1d 19h ago
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