EL Nacional (W) – Quito FC (W)

Model: TIPPSA

EL Nacional (W) vs Quito FC (W)

PREDICTION
2
@ 3.02
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 08, 2026 9:00 PM
ResultWIN1 - 4
StartStarted 63d 18h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.92% · n=29
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.92% · n=29
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 63d 20h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Quito FC (W). This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Quito FC (W)

Shots Rating

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

45/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.60First seen
Current2.55Now
Max odds2.60Highest point
Min odds2.55Lowest point
VolatilityLowStable range
TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

EL Nacional (W)HOME
VS
Quito FC (W)AWAY
LLLLL
Recent form
WLLLL
Avg goals scored
1.20
1.60
Defensive weakness
4.60
2.80
Shots on target for
5.00
7.00
SoT conceded pressure
13.33
6.00
Home splitL-L-L0.67 scored / 3.00 conceded
Away splitW-L-L1.67 scored / 2.67 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 3.02. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 2.92% based on n=29 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Ecuador Primera Women (ec). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with Low volatility.

Pick2
Odd3.02
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 2.92% · n=29
V4 BandMEDIUMROI 2.92% · n=29
Odds TrendDropping
VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

Despite entering the match at a generous price, Quito FC (W) has produced enough positive indicators to justify attention. The confidence profile is moderate, so the pick has statistical support but should not be treated as a low-risk prediction. Quito FC (W) is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.
3D: -34.8% 7D: -18.4% 15D: -6.7% 30D: 6.2%
Model insight

EL Nacional (W) – Quito FC (W) Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 3.02. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 2.92% and 2.92%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The available sample size is still relatively limited, which may increase performance variability. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample15
Win Rate20.0%
Profit-6.11u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
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LOSSSantamarina Tandil - Kimberley Mar del Plata3.014.96%
LOSSDeportes Copiapo - Santiago Wanderers2.924.96%
WINNew Zealand (W) - Haiti (W)2.864.96%
LOSSQingdao West Coast - Shanghai Shenhua2.914.96%
LOSSEgypt - Russia3.274.77%
LOSSCadiz - Leganes2.864.96%
Pick
2 @ 3.02
Kickoff
Mag 08, 2026 9:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 2.92% • n=29
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
2.92% • n=29
Start
Started 63d 18h ago
Updated
Updated 63d 20h ago
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