Model: TipTromba35H
Essendon Royals (W) – South Melbourne (W)
PREDICTION
1
@ 3.10
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 16, 2026 9:00 AM
ResultWIN4 - 1
StartStarted 10d 16h ago
V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -0.30% · n=731
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 11d 4h ago
Team Form & Goal Trends
Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.
| Metric | Essendon Royals (W) | South Melbourne (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 form | W-D-D-W-W | L-W-D-W-W |
| Avg goals scored | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| Avg goals conceded | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| Home/Away form | W-D-W (home) | L-D-W (away) |
| Home/Away avg goals | 3.33 scored / 1.00 conceded | 1.00 scored / 1.67 conceded |
| Shots on target | 11.60 for / 4.40 against | 8.40 for / 4.40 against |
| Home/Away shots on target | 8.33 for / 5.00 against (home) | 6.33 for / 5.67 against (away) |
AI Match Insight
The current odds imply an underdog profile, although recent performances indicate a more competitive matchup. The model does not assign a strong confidence profile here, making the pick more speculative. Essendon Royals (W) has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds3.10First seen
Current3.10Now
Max odds3.10Highest point
Min odds3.10Lowest point
VolatilityLowStable range
TrendStableShort term
Model insight
Essendon Royals (W) – South Melbourne (W) Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 1 at odds 3.10. This prediction is generated by the TipTromba35H model profile. The V2 confidence band is NONE, with a historical expected ROI of -0.30% across 731 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample69
Win Rate29.0%
Profit-6.71u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | CF Jaraiz - CD Badajoz | 3.10 | -0.30% |
| LOSS | Urawa Red Diamonds - FC Tokyo | 3.00 | -0.30% |
| LOSS | Hodd - Sogndal | 3.08 | -0.30% |
| LOSS | Real Noroeste Capixaba - Rio Branco ES | 3.20 | -0.30% |
| LOSS | Cavalier - Montego Bay Utd | 3.00 | -0.30% |
| WIN | Botev Plovdiv - Cherno More Varna | 3.10 | -0.30% |
| LOSS | Slovan Liberec - Sparta Prague | 3.00 | -0.30% |
| WIN | Macarthur Rams (W) - Northern Tigers FC (W) | 3.20 | -0.30% |
Pick
1 @ 3.10
Kickoff
Mag 16, 2026 9:00 AM
Confidence
CONF: NONE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI -0.30% • n=731
Start
Started 10d 16h ago
Updated
Updated 11d 4h ago