Model: TIPPSH

Freiburg (W) vs Union Berlin (W)

PREDICTION

@ 2.54

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffAgo 29, 2026 2:00 PM

ResultWIN1 - 0

StartStarted 2h 7m ago

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.49% · n=1025

V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.49% · n=1025

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 4h 17m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Freiburg (W). This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Freiburg (W)Goal/Shots Index — H: 0.211 | A: -0.046

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

39/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.33First seen

Current2.54Now

Max odds2.54Highest point

Min odds2.33Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Freiburg (W)HOME

Union Berlin (W)AWAY

WDWWW

Recent form

LLLDL

Avg goals scored

2.40

0.80

Defensive weakness

0.40

2.20

Shots on target for

5.40

2.40

SoT conceded pressure

4.40

6.20

Home splitW-W-W-L1.50 scored / 1.25 conceded

Away splitL-L-W1.00 scored / 1.67 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.54. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 2.49% based on n=1025 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Germany Bundesliga Women (de). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1

Odd2.54

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 2.49% · n=1025

V4 BandMEDIUMROI 2.49% · n=1025

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

Although the odds are relatively high, Freiburg (W) shows enough recent performance support to make the pick interesting from a risk/reward perspective. This sits in a middle confidence range, suggesting a balanced but not especially dominant setup. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Freiburg (W)'s attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 6.1% 7D: 20.7% 15D: 10.9% 30D: 9.9%

Model insight

Freiburg (W) – Union Berlin (W) Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.54. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 2.49% and 2.49%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample158

Win Rate41.8%

Profit+6.33u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Rakow Czestochowa U19 - Miedz Legnica U19	2.63	2.49%
LOSS	Arka Gdynia U19 - Jagiellonia Bialystok U19	2.31	2.49%
LOSS	Slovan Bratislava U19 - MSK Zilina U19	2.45	3.15%
LOSS	SG Barockstadt - FSV Frankfurt	2.47	2.49%
WIN	Cavese - Audace Cerignola	2.68	2.49%
LOSS	Union Saint Gilloise II - Union Rochefortoise	2.42	2.49%
WIN	Lazio (W) - Napoli (W)	2.43	3.15%
WIN	Gyor Eto FC (W) - Puskas FC (W)	2.60	2.49%

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Pick

1 @ 2.54

Kickoff

Ago 29, 2026 2:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 2.49% • n=1025

Confidence V4

CONF V4: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V4

2.49% • n=1025

Start

Started 2h 7m ago

Updated

Updated 4h 17m ago