Gubbio – ASD Sporting Trestina

Model: TipA1

Gubbio vs ASD Sporting Trestina

PREDICTION
2
@ 5.75
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffLug 29, 2026 7:30 PM
ResultLOSS2 - 0
StartStarted 14h 11m ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.14% · n=15
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.14% · n=15
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 1d 4h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is ASD Sporting Trestina. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: ASD Sporting TrestinaGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.104 | A: —

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

62/100
Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds5.75First seen
Current6.08Now
Max odds6.08Highest point
Min odds5.75Lowest point
VolatilityMediumStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

GubbioHOME
VS
ASD Sporting TrestinaAWAY
WLLWD
Recent form
LDLDD
Avg goals scored
1.00
1.20
Defensive weakness
0.60
2.00
Shots on target for
2.60
3.25
SoT conceded pressure
3.80
2.50
Home splitW-W-D1.67 scored / 0.33 conceded
Away splitL-D-D-D1.25 scored / 1.75 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 5.75. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.14% based on n=15 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Europe Friendlies. Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Medium volatility.

Pick2
Odd5.75
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.14% · n=15
V4 BandMEDIUMROI 4.14% · n=15
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

The elevated odds reflect a naturally higher-risk profile, especially because recent form does not clearly favor ASD Sporting Trestina. The confidence profile is moderate, so the pick has statistical support but should not be treated as a low-risk prediction.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.
3D: -8.1% 7D: -6.9% 15D: 10.9% 30D: 14.3%
Model insight

Gubbio – ASD Sporting Trestina Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 5.75. This prediction is generated by the TipA1 model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 4.14% and 4.14%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The available sample size is still relatively limited, which may increase performance variability. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample9
Win Rate22.2%
Profit+2.75u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
WINAC Horsens - Vendsyssel FF5.754.97%
LOSSFC Lausanne-Sport - Breitenrain6.004.97%
WINGremio - Chapecoense6.004.97%
LOSSIA Rio Negro de San Jose - Wanderers Durazno5.754.97%
LOSSAnderlecht (W) - Zulte-Waregem (W)6.004.97%
LOSSGalicia U20 - Jacobina EC U205.753.00%
LOSSBasake Holy Stars FC - Aduana Stars6.003.73%
LOSSSwindon - Accrington Stanley5.753.73%
Pick
2 @ 5.75
Kickoff
Lug 29, 2026 7:30 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 4.14% • n=15
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
4.14% • n=15
Start
Started 14h 11m ago
Updated
Updated 1d 4h ago
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