Model: TipA1

Gremio vs Chapecoense

PREDICTION

@ 6.00

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffLug 05, 2026 2:00 AM

ResultWIN1 - 2

StartStarted 47d 11h ago

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.97% · n=41

V4 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 0.78% · n=16

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 47d 13h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Chapecoense. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: ChapecoenseGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

50/100

Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds6.00First seen

Current6.00Now

Max odds6.00Highest point

Min odds6.00Lowest point

VolatilityLowStable range

TrendStableShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

GremioHOME

ChapecoenseAWAY

LWLDW

Recent form

WWLLD

Avg goals scored

1.80

1.40

Defensive weakness

2.00

1.40

Shots on target for

5.00

5.80

SoT conceded pressure

5.60

4.00

Home splitL-L-D-W-W1.80 scored / 1.80 conceded

Away splitW-L-L-L-W1.00 scored / 1.40 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 6.00. The V4 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 0.78% based on n=16 historical similar picks. The match belongs to America Friendlies. Odds movement is currently classified as Stable with Low volatility.

Pick2

Odd6.00

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.97% · n=41

V4 BandLOWROI 0.78% · n=16

Odds TrendStable

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

From a statistical perspective, the difference between the two teams may be smaller than the current price indicates. The confidence profile is moderate, so the pick has statistical support but should not be treated as a low-risk prediction.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 27.3% 7D: 52.5% 15D: 26.1% 30D: 11.2%

Model insight

Gremio – Chapecoense Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 6.00. This prediction is generated by the TipA1 model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 4.97% across 41 similar predictions. The V4 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 0.78% across 16 historical samples. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The available sample size is still relatively limited, which may increase performance variability. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample10

Win Rate20.0%

Profit+1.75u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Vojvodina - FK Radnik Surdulica	6.00	4.14%
LOSS	Gubbio - ASD Sporting Trestina	5.75	4.14%
WIN	AC Horsens - Vendsyssel FF	5.75	4.97%
LOSS	FC Lausanne-Sport - Breitenrain	6.00	4.97%
LOSS	IA Rio Negro de San Jose - Wanderers Durazno	5.75	4.97%
LOSS	Anderlecht (W) - Zulte-Waregem (W)	6.00	4.97%
LOSS	Galicia U20 - Jacobina EC U20	5.75	3.00%
LOSS	Basake Holy Stars FC - Aduana Stars	6.00	3.73%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
Al Jazira SC U19 - Sharjah SCC U19	2	5.75	4.14%	21 Aug 16:05

Pick

2 @ 6.00

Kickoff

Lug 05, 2026 2:00 AM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 4.97% • n=41

Confidence V4

CONF V4: LOW

Exp. ROI V4

0.78% • n=16

Start

Started 47d 11h ago

Updated

Updated 47d 13h ago