Island Bay United – Wellington Phoenix Reserves

Model: TipTromba35H

Island Bay United vs Wellington Phoenix Reserves

PREDICTION
1
@ 3.25
StatusUpcoming
KickoffAgo 22, 2026 7:45 AM
ResultPending
StartStarts in 2h 17m
V2 ConfidenceELITEExpected ROI 8.81% · n=117
V4 ConfidenceELITEExpected ROI 8.81% · n=117
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 9m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Island Bay United. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Island Bay UnitedGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.004 | A: 0.029

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

68/100
Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds3.10First seen
Current3.38Now
Max odds3.40Highest point
Min odds3.10Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Island Bay UnitedHOME
VS
Wellington Phoenix ReservesAWAY
WDLLL
Recent form
LDLLD
Avg goals scored
1.20
0.80
Defensive weakness
1.80
1.60
Shots on target for
6.80
3.60
SoT conceded pressure
8.80
6.80
Home splitW-D-L-L-L1.20 scored / 1.60 conceded
Away splitL-D-L-L-L0.60 scored / 1.60 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 3.25. The V4 confidence band is ELITE with an expected ROI of 8.81% based on n=117 historical similar picks. The match belongs to New Zealand Central League (nz). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd3.25
V2 BandELITEROI 8.81% · n=117
V4 BandELITEROI 8.81% · n=117
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The market offers a relatively high price, but recent statistical trends still provide meaningful support for Island Bay United. Comparable matches classified within the ELITE confidence range have historically generated positive model outcomes. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Island Bay United's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.
3D: 38.1% 7D: 17.9% 15D: 1.1% 30D: 3.7%
Model insight

Island Bay United – Wellington Phoenix Reserves Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 3.25. This prediction is generated by the TipTromba35H model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show ELITE confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 8.81% and 8.81%. Historical expected profitability for this profile has been well above average, although future outcomes remain sensitive to market and team-news conditions. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample37
Win Rate35.1%
Profit+5.75u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
WINAl-Ula - Al Fateh SC3.409.25%
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LOSSCSM Slatina - ACS Sepsi3.308.81%
WINSparta Brno - TJ Sokol Lanzhot3.258.81%
LOSSKolos Kovalivka II - Ahrobiznes Volochysk3.408.81%
LOSSEC Juventude - Atletico Mineiro3.258.81%
WINParedes - Lusitania Lourosa3.1013.12%
LOSSLyngby - AGF Aarhus3.408.81%
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Pick
1 @ 3.25
Kickoff
Ago 22, 2026 7:45 AM
Confidence
CONF: ELITE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 8.81% • n=117
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
8.81% • n=117
Start
Starts in 2h 17m
Updated
Updated 9m ago
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