Model: TipA1

Itabaiana vs Caxias RS

PREDICTION

@ 2.70

StatusUpcoming

KickoffAgo 10, 2026 1:30 AM

ResultPending

StartStarts in 2d 12h

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.27% · n=1151

V4 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 6.85% · n=441

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 15h 35m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Caxias RS. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Caxias RSGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.103 | A: -0.036

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

56/100

Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.70First seen

Current2.70Now

Max odds2.70Highest point

Min odds2.70Lowest point

VolatilityLowStable range

TrendStableShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

ItabaianaHOME

Caxias RSAWAY

DWWWL

Recent form

LDWDD

Avg goals scored

1.00

0.80

Defensive weakness

0.60

0.80

Shots on target for

3.60

7.60

SoT conceded pressure

3.60

3.80

Home splitW-W-D-L-D0.80 scored / 0.60 conceded

Away splitW-L-D-D-D0.60 scored / 0.60 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.70. The V4 confidence band is HIGH with an expected ROI of 6.85% based on n=441 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Brazil Serie C (br). Odds movement is currently classified as Stable with Low volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.70

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.27% · n=1151

V4 BandHIGHROI 6.85% · n=441

Odds TrendStable

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

Recent performances only partially support the selection, which helps explain the higher market price. The model gives this selection a reasonable profile, although the confidence level remains measured. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Caxias RS's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: -3.0% 7D: 33.3% 15D: 6.3% 30D: 13.1%

Model insight

Itabaiana – Caxias RS Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.70. This prediction is generated by the TipA1 model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 4.27% across 1151 similar predictions. The V4 confidence band is HIGH, with a historical expected ROI of 6.85% across 441 historical samples. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample123

Win Rate39.0%

Profit-0.42u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	Sandefjord U19 - Asane Fotball U19	2.45	4.27%
LOSS	FM Klaipedos - Suduva Marijampole II	2.63	4.27%
LOSS	Slask Wroclaw II - Stal Stalowa Wola	2.60	4.27%
WIN	Cerro Largo Reserves - Atletico River Plate Reserves	2.90	4.44%
LOSS	Torns IF - Staffanstorp United	2.60	4.27%
LOSS	Metropolitanos FC - Academia Puerto Cabello	2.70	4.27%
LOSS	Atlantis II - FC Lahti II	2.60	4.27%
WIN	Ruthin Town FC - Holyhead Hotspur	2.45	4.27%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
Skive - Nykobing	2	2.70	4.27%	08 Aug 15:00
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SK Slany - SK Ujezd Praha 4	2	2.70	4.27%	08 Aug 17:00
Tulsa - Detroit City FC	2	2.55	4.27%	09 Aug 02:30
Chojniczanka Chojnice - Znicz Pruszków	2	2.60	4.27%	09 Aug 17:00
Banfield - Belgrano	2	2.50	4.27%	11 Aug 00:00

Pick

2 @ 2.70

Kickoff

Ago 10, 2026 1:30 AM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 4.27% • n=1151

Confidence V4

CONF V4: HIGH

Exp. ROI V4

6.85% • n=441

Start

Starts in 2d 12h

Updated

Updated 15h 35m ago