Model: TipTromba3H

Karlbergs BK vs IF Karlstad Fotboll

PREDICTION

@ 2.80

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffMag 09, 2026 6:00 PM

ResultLOSS0 - 0

StartStarted 81d 20h ago

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.12% · n=251

V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 82d 21h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Karlbergs BK. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Karlbergs BKGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

47/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.84First seen

Current2.86Now

Max odds2.86Highest point

Min odds2.76Lowest point

VolatilityMediumStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Karlbergs BKHOME

IF Karlstad FotbollAWAY

DLWWL

Recent form

DLWWW

Avg goals scored

1.80

1.00

Defensive weakness

2.00

0.60

Shots on target for

5.80

3.80

SoT conceded pressure

4.80

3.20

Home splitD-W-L1.33 scored / 1.67 conceded

Away splitD-W-W1.00 scored / 0.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.80. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.12% based on n=251 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Sweden 1.div Norra (se). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Medium volatility.

Pick1

Odd2.80

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.12% · n=251

V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

The elevated odds reflect a naturally higher-risk profile, especially because recent form does not clearly favor Karlbergs BK. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive. Karlbergs BK has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.

3D: -30.7% 7D: -14.6% 15D: -7.8% 30D: 6.0%

Model insight

Karlbergs BK – IF Karlstad Fotboll Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.80. This prediction is generated by the TipTromba3H model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 4.12% across 251 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample114

Win Rate38.6%

Profit+5.53u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	NK Kustosija - Karlovac	2.90	4.49%
WIN	Hapoel Ramat Gan - Hapoel Petah Tikva	2.80	4.49%
WIN	Kedah FA U20 - Kuching City U20	2.55	2.55%
LOSS	SC Lokeren-Temse - NAC	2.80	4.49%
WIN	AZ - Olympiacos	2.80	4.49%
LOSS	Cesar Vallejo - Union Comercio	2.55	2.55%
LOSS	BVSC Zuglo - Kazincbarcikai BSC	2.88	4.49%
WIN	PK-37 - KUPS Akatemia II	2.63	2.55%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
Stal Brzeg - LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj	1	2.70	2.55%	31 Jul 18:00
NEC - Sevilla	1	2.75	4.49%	31 Jul 19:00

Pick

1 @ 2.80

Kickoff

Mag 09, 2026 6:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 4.12% • n=251

Start

Started 81d 20h ago

Updated

Updated 82d 21h ago