Model: TipTromba5H

Karlbergs BK vs IK Brage

PREDICTION

@ 4.50

StatusUpcoming

KickoffAgo 18, 2026 8:30 PM

ResultPending

StartStarts in 20h 23m

V2 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 6.25% · n=123

V4 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 6.25% · n=123

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 8m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Karlbergs BK. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Karlbergs BKGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.100 | A: -0.034

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

67/100

Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds4.50First seen

Current4.91Now

Max odds4.91Highest point

Min odds4.50Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Karlbergs BKHOME

IK BrageAWAY

WLWWW

Recent form

DLWDL

Avg goals scored

2.00

1.40

Defensive weakness

0.80

2.00

Shots on target for

5.80

3.00

SoT conceded pressure

4.00

4.40

Home splitW-W-L-D-L1.40 scored / 1.40 conceded

Away splitL-D-L-L-D1.20 scored / 2.20 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 4.50. The V4 confidence band is HIGH with an expected ROI of 6.25% based on n=123 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Sweden Cup Qualification (se). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1

Odd4.50

V2 BandHIGHROI 6.25% · n=123

V4 BandHIGHROI 6.25% · n=123

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The market offers a relatively high price, but recent statistical trends still provide meaningful support for Karlbergs BK. The HIGH confidence band is important here: similar higher-priced setups have historically produced positive model results. Karlbergs BK has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.

3D: -2.5% 7D: -23.3% 15D: -4.5% 30D: 1.3%

Model insight

Karlbergs BK – IK Brage Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 4.50. This prediction is generated by the TipTromba5H model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show HIGH confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 6.25% and 6.25%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample38

Win Rate23.7%

Profit+3.00u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Maccabi Herzliya U19 - Hapoel Tel Aviv U19	4.75	7.69%
LOSS	Hajdunanas FK - Kisvarda II	4.75	7.69%
LOSS	Cavese - Juve Stabia	4.75	7.69%
LOSS	Gimnastica Segoviana - Valladolid	4.75	7.69%
LOSS	Burkina Faso (W) - South Africa (W)	4.50	6.25%
LOSS	TJ Dvorniky - Vcelare - Spartak Medzev	4.50	6.25%
WIN	FK Klasterec nad Ohri - FK Ostrov	4.50	6.25%
LOSS	Solihull Moors - Northampton	4.50	7.29%

Pick

1 @ 4.50

Kickoff

Ago 18, 2026 8:30 PM

Confidence

CONF: HIGH

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 6.25% • n=123

Confidence V4

CONF V4: HIGH

Exp. ROI V4

6.25% • n=123

Start

Starts in 20h 23m

Updated

Updated 8m ago