LDU Portoviejo – Atletico FC Guayaquil

Model: TipTromba3H

LDU Portoviejo vs Atletico FC Guayaquil

PREDICTION
1
@ 2.50
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 09, 2026 1:30 AM
ResultLOSS1 - 1
StartStarted 63d 20h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.50% · n=493
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 64d 10h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is LDU Portoviejo. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: LDU Portoviejo

Shots Rating

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

39/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.60First seen
Current2.55Now
Max odds2.60Highest point
Min odds2.55Lowest point
VolatilityLowStable range
TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

LDU PortoviejoHOME
VS
Atletico FC GuayaquilAWAY
DLLWW
Recent form
DDDDD
Avg goals scored
1.60
0.80
Defensive weakness
1.20
0.80
Shots on target for
3.40
1.80
SoT conceded pressure
3.60
3.20
Home splitD-W-D0.67 scored / 0.33 conceded
Away splitD-D-D-L-W1.20 scored / 1.20 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.50. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 2.50% based on n=493 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Ecuador LigaPro Serie B (ec). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with Low volatility.

Pick1
Odd2.50
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 2.50% · n=493
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendDropping
VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

While the odds remain elevated, the underlying metrics suggest the selection may be more competitive than the market implies. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to LDU Portoviejo's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.
3D: -34.8% 7D: -18.4% 15D: -8.4% 30D: 6.2%
Model insight

LDU Portoviejo – Atletico FC Guayaquil Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.50. This prediction is generated by the TipTromba3H model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 2.50% across 493 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample108
Win Rate37.0%
Profit-3.63u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
WINVasas SC - Kisvarda FC2.602.55%
LOSSSacachispas U20 - Defensores de Glew U202.552.55%
LOSSUnia Skierniewice - Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki2.502.55%
WINEhime FC (W) - Okayama Yunogo Belle (W)2.754.49%
WINPolissya Zhytomyr - CSKA Sofia2.754.49%
LOSSJoy AC (W) - Minnesota Bliss (W)2.702.55%
LOSSAuckland FC II - Western Springs AFC2.754.49%
LOSSFC Gori - FC Gareji2.552.55%
Pick
1 @ 2.50
Kickoff
Mag 09, 2026 1:30 AM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 2.50% • n=493
Start
Started 63d 20h ago
Updated
Updated 64d 10h ago
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