Leixoes – UD Leiria

Model: TIPPSH

Leixoes vs UD Leiria

PREDICTION
1
@ 2.35
StatusUpcoming
KickoffAgo 23, 2026 7:00 PM
ResultLOSS2 - 4
StartStarts in 9h 17m
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.49% · n=1025
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.49% · n=1025
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 9h 44m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Leixoes. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: LeixoesGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.009 | A: -0.078

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

37/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.55First seen
Current2.43Now
Max odds2.55Highest point
Min odds2.25Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

LeixoesHOME
VS
UD LeiriaAWAY
LWLWW
Recent form
WLLLD
Avg goals scored
2.20
1.80
Defensive weakness
1.60
2.00
Shots on target for
5.80
5.40
SoT conceded pressure
3.80
4.40
Home splitL-W-W-W-W2.60 scored / 1.40 conceded
Away splitW-L-L-L-L1.40 scored / 1.80 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.35. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 2.49% based on n=1025 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Portugal Segunda Liga (pt). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd2.35
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 2.49% · n=1025
V4 BandMEDIUMROI 2.49% · n=1025
Odds TrendDropping
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The odds suggest a balanced contest, but recent performance data slightly favors Leixoes. The model gives this selection a reasonable profile, although the confidence level remains measured.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.
3D: 25.9% 7D: 17.5% 15D: 1.9% 30D: 3.8%
Model insight

Leixoes – UD Leiria Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.35. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 2.49% and 2.49%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample231
Win Rate42.4%
Profit-4.52u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
WINGyor Eto FC (W) - Puskas FC (W)2.602.49%
WINEPS - HJS2.323.15%
LOSSWil 1900 - Kriens2.173.37%
WINStockton Town - Alfreton Town2.203.37%
WINBury Town - Leamington2.153.37%
WINMolde FK (W) - LSK Kvinner (W)2.422.49%
LOSSFirst Vienna FC 1894 (W) - SK Sturm Graz (W)2.403.15%
LOSSMawlai SC - Shillong Lajong Reserves2.293.15%
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Pick
1 @ 2.35
Kickoff
Ago 23, 2026 7:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 2.49% • n=1025
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
2.49% • n=1025
Start
Starts in 9h 17m
Updated
Updated 9h 44m ago
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