Mansfield vs Derby
📊 Match Analysis
Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.
Game Context
The model side is Mansfield. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.
Edge: MansfieldGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.193 | A: 0.041Value Index
Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.
Odds Movement
📊 Team Form (Last 5)
Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.
Quick Analysis
The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 3.10. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 0.01% based on n=821 historical similar picks. The match belongs to UK Friendlies (gb). Odds movement is currently classified as Stable with Low volatility.
AI Match Insight
While the odds remain elevated, the underlying metrics suggest the selection may be more competitive than the market implies. The model does not assign a strong confidence profile here, making the pick more speculative. Mansfield has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.
Mansfield – Derby Betting Analysis
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | Wealdstone - AFC Wimbledon | 3.10 | 0.01% |
| LOSS | NK Osijek - Caykur Rizespor | 3.00 | 0.01% |
| WIN | Matsumoto Y FC - Ventforet Kofu | 3.10 | 0.01% |
| LOSS | Cambodia - Singapore | 3.00 | 0.01% |
| WIN | Hapoel Tel Aviv - Ludogorets Razgrad | 3.12 | 0.01% |
| LOSS | Deportivo Paraguayo Reserves - Puerto Nuevo Reserves | 3.10 | 0.01% |
| LOSS | Dila Gori - Apollon Limassol | 3.20 | 0.01% |
| WIN | Bay FC (W) - North Carolina Courage (W) | 3.14 | 0.01% |
| Match | Pick | Odd | Exp. ROI | Kickoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Levadia Tallinn - IFK Goteborg | 1 | 3.14 | 0.01% | 30 Jul 18:30 |
| Juarez FC (W) - Pachuca (W) | 1 | 3.00 | 0.01% | 02 Aug 01:00 |
| CA Chaco For Ever - Deportivo Moron | 1 | 3.04 | 0.01% | 02 Aug 21:00 |