Marcilio Dias – Joinville

Model: TIPPSA

Marcilio Dias vs Joinville

PREDICTION
2
@ 6.78
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffAgo 30, 2026 10:00 PM
ResultLOSS4 - 2
StartStarted 17h 39m ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.57% · n=15
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 19h 47m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Joinville. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: JoinvilleGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

56/100
Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds5.00First seen
Current6.78Now
Max odds6.78Highest point
Min odds5.00Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Marcilio DiasHOME
VS
JoinvilleAWAY
WLDWD
Recent form
LLWDL
Avg goals scored
1.80
1.00
Defensive weakness
1.60
1.60
Shots on target for
2.20
3.00
SoT conceded pressure
5.20
3.40
Home splitW-D-W-L-W2.20 scored / 1.20 conceded
Away splitL-L-L-L-W1.00 scored / 2.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 6.78. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 2.57% based on n=15 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Brazil Copa Santa Catarina (br). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2
Odd6.78
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 2.57% · n=15
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The elevated odds reflect a naturally higher-risk profile, especially because recent form does not clearly favor Joinville. The confidence profile is moderate, so the pick has statistical support but should not be treated as a low-risk prediction.

Current Combo momentum is positive. Recent Combo selections remain profitable across multiple recent windows, indicating stable short-term performance.
3D: -0.9% 7D: 6.7% 15D: 14.3% 30D: 8.8%
Model insight

Marcilio Dias – Joinville Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 6.78. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 2.57% across 15 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The available sample size is still relatively limited, which may increase performance variability. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample2
Win Rate0.0%
Profit-2.00u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSLens - Auxerre6.745.00%
Pick
2 @ 6.78
Kickoff
Ago 30, 2026 10:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 2.57% • n=15
Start
Started 17h 39m ago
Updated
Updated 19h 47m ago
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