Maritimo – Chaves

Model: TIPPSA

Maritimo – Chaves

PREDICTION
2
@ 3.80
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 15, 2026 10:00 PM
ResultWIN1 - 3
StartStarted 11d 3h ago
V2 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 5.37% · n=115
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.23% · n=45
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 11d 5h ago

Team Form & Goal Trends

Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.

Metric Maritimo Chaves
Last 5 form L-L-W-W-L W-L-L-W-L
Avg goals scored 1.20 2.20
Avg goals conceded 1.60 2.20
Home/Away form L-W-W (home) W-L-L-L (away)
Home/Away avg goals 1.67 scored / 1.67 conceded 2.00 scored / 2.75 conceded
Shots on target 3.60 for / 4.40 against 7.00 for / 5.20 against
Home/Away shots on target 4.67 for / 3.67 against (home) 5.25 for / 5.25 against (away)

AI Match Insight

From a statistical perspective, the difference between the two teams may be smaller than the current price indicates. Historical model performance remains supportive, with similar HIGH underdog setups showing encouraging long-term results. Chaves has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds3.33First seen
Current3.80Now
Max odds3.80Highest point
Min odds3.30Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term
Model insight

Maritimo – Chaves Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 3.80. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is HIGH, with a historical expected ROI of 5.37% across 115 similar predictions. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 4.23% across 45 historical samples. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample10
Win Rate10.0%
Profit-6.00u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSGoias - Vila Nova3.895.37%
LOSSEspanyol - Levante3.915.37%
LOSSVikingur Reykjavik (W) - Stjarnan (W)3.875.37%
LOSSLDU Quito - SD Aucas3.965.37%
WINMFK Zvolen - Slovan Bratislava B4.005.37%
LOSSIA/Kari/Skall/Viko U19 - Stjarnan/KFG U193.925.37%
LOSSSousa EC - Maguary PE3.755.37%
LOSSZnicz Pruszkow U19 - Resovia Rzeszow U194.035.37%
Pick
2 @ 3.80
Kickoff
Mag 15, 2026 10:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: HIGH
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 5.37% • n=115
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
4.23% • n=45
Start
Started 11d 3h ago
Updated
Updated 11d 5h ago
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