Maritimo – Chaves

Model: TIPPSA

Maritimo vs Chaves

PREDICTION
2
@ 3.80
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 15, 2026 10:00 PM
ResultWIN1 - 3
StartStarted 57d 3h ago
V2 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 5.37% · n=115
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.23% · n=45
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 57d 5h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Chaves. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Chaves

Shots Rating

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

55/100
Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds3.33First seen
Current3.80Now
Max odds3.80Highest point
Min odds3.30Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

MaritimoHOME
VS
ChavesAWAY
LLWWL
Recent form
WLLWL
Avg goals scored
1.20
2.20
Defensive weakness
1.60
2.20
Shots on target for
3.60
7.00
SoT conceded pressure
4.40
5.20
Home splitL-W-W1.67 scored / 1.67 conceded
Away splitW-L-L-L2.00 scored / 2.75 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 3.80. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.23% based on n=45 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Portugal Segunda Liga (pt). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2
Odd3.80
V2 BandHIGHROI 5.37% · n=115
V4 BandMEDIUMROI 4.23% · n=45
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The current odds imply an underdog profile, although recent performances indicate a more competitive matchup. Comparable matches classified within the HIGH confidence range have historically generated positive model outcomes. Chaves has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.
3D: 11.8% 7D: 13.8% 15D: -4.2% 30D: -2.3%
Model insight

Maritimo – Chaves Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 3.80. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is HIGH, with a historical expected ROI of 5.37% across 115 similar predictions. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 4.23% across 45 historical samples. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample10
Win Rate10.0%
Profit-6.00u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSGoias - Vila Nova3.895.37%
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LOSSVikingur Reykjavik (W) - Stjarnan (W)3.875.37%
LOSSLDU Quito - SD Aucas3.965.37%
WINMFK Zvolen - Slovan Bratislava B4.005.37%
LOSSIA/Kari/Skall/Viko U19 - Stjarnan/KFG U193.925.37%
LOSSSousa EC - Maguary PE3.755.37%
LOSSZnicz Pruszkow U19 - Resovia Rzeszow U194.035.37%
Pick
2 @ 3.80
Kickoff
Mag 15, 2026 10:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: HIGH
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 5.37% • n=115
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
4.23% • n=45
Start
Started 57d 3h ago
Updated
Updated 57d 5h ago
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