Model: TIPPSA
Maritimo – Chaves
PREDICTION
2
@ 3.80
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 15, 2026 10:00 PM
ResultWIN1 - 3
StartStarted 11d 3h ago
V2 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 5.37% · n=115
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.23% · n=45
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 11d 5h ago
Team Form & Goal Trends
Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.
| Metric | Maritimo | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 form | L-L-W-W-L | W-L-L-W-L |
| Avg goals scored | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| Avg goals conceded | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| Home/Away form | L-W-W (home) | W-L-L-L (away) |
| Home/Away avg goals | 1.67 scored / 1.67 conceded | 2.00 scored / 2.75 conceded |
| Shots on target | 3.60 for / 4.40 against | 7.00 for / 5.20 against |
| Home/Away shots on target | 4.67 for / 3.67 against (home) | 5.25 for / 5.25 against (away) |
AI Match Insight
From a statistical perspective, the difference between the two teams may be smaller than the current price indicates. Historical model performance remains supportive, with similar HIGH underdog setups showing encouraging long-term results. Chaves has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds3.33First seen
Current3.80Now
Max odds3.80Highest point
Min odds3.30Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term
Model insight
Maritimo – Chaves Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 2 at odds 3.80. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is HIGH, with a historical expected ROI of 5.37% across 115 similar predictions. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 4.23% across 45 historical samples. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample10
Win Rate10.0%
Profit-6.00u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | Goias - Vila Nova | 3.89 | 5.37% |
| LOSS | Espanyol - Levante | 3.91 | 5.37% |
| LOSS | Vikingur Reykjavik (W) - Stjarnan (W) | 3.87 | 5.37% |
| LOSS | LDU Quito - SD Aucas | 3.96 | 5.37% |
| WIN | MFK Zvolen - Slovan Bratislava B | 4.00 | 5.37% |
| LOSS | IA/Kari/Skall/Viko U19 - Stjarnan/KFG U19 | 3.92 | 5.37% |
| LOSS | Sousa EC - Maguary PE | 3.75 | 5.37% |
| LOSS | Znicz Pruszkow U19 - Resovia Rzeszow U19 | 4.03 | 5.37% |
Pick
2 @ 3.80
Kickoff
Mag 15, 2026 10:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: HIGH
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 5.37% • n=115
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
4.23% • n=45
Start
Started 11d 3h ago
Updated
Updated 11d 5h ago