Montana – Spartak Varna

Model: TIPPSH

Montana vs Spartak Varna

PREDICTION
1
@ 2.44
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 18, 2026 8:30 PM
ResultLOSS0 - 2
StartStarted 55d 2h ago
V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -1.54% · n=136
V4 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -1.54% · n=136
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 59d 4h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Montana. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Montana

Shots Rating

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

24/100
Poor value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.30First seen
Current2.44Now
Max odds2.44Highest point
Min odds2.30Lowest point
VolatilityMediumStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

MontanaHOME
VS
Spartak VarnaAWAY
LLDDD
Recent form
WLWDL
Avg goals scored
1.00
1.20
Defensive weakness
1.60
1.00
Shots on target for
3.40
4.00
SoT conceded pressure
4.00
7.20
Home splitL-D-W-D-L0.60 scored / 1.00 conceded
Away splitW-L-L-D-L0.60 scored / 1.60 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.44. The V4 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -1.54% based on n=136 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Bulgaria First League (bg). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Medium volatility.

Pick1
Odd2.44
V2 BandNONEROI -1.54% · n=136
V4 BandNONEROI -1.54% · n=136
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

Recent performances only partially support the selection, which helps explain the higher market price. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.
3D: 23.5% 7D: 21.1% 15D: -2.1% 30D: 0.2%
Model insight

Montana – Spartak Varna Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.44. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show NONE confidence, with historical expected ROI values of -1.54% and -1.54%. Historical performance for this profile has been negative or unstable, so this signal should be treated with additional caution. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample66
Win Rate37.9%
Profit-5.72u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSRouen - Laval2.29-1.54%
LOSSAarau - Grasshoppers2.46-0.42%
WINGreuther Furth - Fortuna Dusseldorf2.59-1.54%
LOSSF91 Dudelange - UNA Strassen2.38-1.54%
LOSSPadova U19 - Venezia U192.38-1.54%
WINSport Boys - Cusco FC2.36-1.54%
WINFC Osaka Speranza (W) - Renofa Yamaguchi (W)2.50-1.54%
LOSSSt Gallen - FC Thun2.25-1.54%
Pick
1 @ 2.44
Kickoff
Mag 18, 2026 8:30 PM
Confidence
CONF: NONE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI -1.54% • n=136
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
-1.54% • n=136
Start
Started 55d 2h ago
Updated
Updated 59d 4h ago
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