Model: TIPPSH
Montana – Spartak Varna
PREDICTION
1
@ 2.44
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 18, 2026 8:30 PM
ResultLOSS0 - 2
StartStarted 8d 5h ago
V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -1.54% · n=136
V4 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -1.54% · n=136
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 12d 7h ago
Team Form & Goal Trends
Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.
| Metric | Montana | Spartak Varna |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 form | L-L-D-D-D | W-L-W-D-L |
| Avg goals scored | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Avg goals conceded | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Home/Away form | L-D-W-D-L (home) | W-L-L-D-L (away) |
| Home/Away avg goals | 0.60 scored / 1.00 conceded | 0.60 scored / 1.60 conceded |
| Shots on target | 3.40 for / 4.00 against | 4.00 for / 7.20 against |
| Home/Away shots on target | 3.25 for / 2.75 against (home) | 1.75 for / 6.50 against (away) |
AI Match Insight
The current odds underline the speculative nature of the pick, particularly given the recent form imbalance. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated.
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.30First seen
Current2.44Now
Max odds2.44Highest point
Min odds2.30Lowest point
VolatilityMediumStable range
TrendRisingShort term
Model insight
Montana – Spartak Varna Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.44. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show NONE confidence, with historical expected ROI values of -1.54% and -1.54%. Historical performance for this profile has been negative or unstable, so this signal should be treated with additional caution. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample66
Win Rate37.9%
Profit-5.72u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | Rouen - Laval | 2.29 | -1.54% |
| LOSS | Aarau - Grasshoppers | 2.46 | -0.42% |
| WIN | Greuther Furth - Fortuna Dusseldorf | 2.59 | -1.54% |
| LOSS | F91 Dudelange - UNA Strassen | 2.38 | -1.54% |
| LOSS | Padova U19 - Venezia U19 | 2.38 | -1.54% |
| WIN | Sport Boys - Cusco FC | 2.36 | -1.54% |
| WIN | FC Osaka Speranza (W) - Renofa Yamaguchi (W) | 2.50 | -1.54% |
| LOSS | St Gallen - FC Thun | 2.25 | -1.54% |
Pick
1 @ 2.44
Kickoff
Mag 18, 2026 8:30 PM
Confidence
CONF: NONE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI -1.54% • n=136
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
-1.54% • n=136
Start
Started 8d 5h ago
Updated
Updated 12d 7h ago