Motherwell – SC Freiburg

Model: TipTromba6H

Motherwell vs SC Freiburg

PREDICTION
1
@ 5.00
StatusUpcoming
KickoffAgo 20, 2026 10:30 PM
ResultPending
StartStarts in 4d 4h
V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.84% · n=67
V4 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.84% · n=67
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 33m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Motherwell. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: MotherwellGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.076 | A: 0.095

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

54/100
Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds4.57First seen
Current5.00Now
Max odds5.08Highest point
Min odds4.57Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

MotherwellHOME
VS
SC FreiburgAWAY
WDDWW
Recent form
WWLWL
Avg goals scored
1.60
1.60
Defensive weakness
0.40
1.40
Shots on target for
3.80
4.20
SoT conceded pressure
3.40
5.20
Home splitW-D-W-L-L1.80 scored / 1.40 conceded
Away splitL-W-L-L-L1.20 scored / 2.60 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 5.00. The V4 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.84% based on n=67 historical similar picks. The match belongs to UEFA Conference League Qualifying. Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd5.00
V2 BandLOWROI 1.84% · n=67
V4 BandLOWROI 1.84% · n=67
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

Despite entering the match at a generous price, Motherwell has produced enough positive indicators to justify attention. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.
3D: -22.7% 7D: -16.8% 15D: 0.3% 30D: 5.3%
Model insight

Motherwell – SC Freiburg Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 5.00. This prediction is generated by the TipTromba6H model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show LOW confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 1.84% and 1.84%. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample19
Win Rate26.3%
Profit+6.50u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSMosconia - Real Aviles CF5.251.38%
LOSSFC Agricola Borcea - FC Unirea 2004 Slobozia5.001.84%
LOSSReal Unión - Eibar5.001.84%
LOSSLDU Portoviejo - Barcelona Guayaquil5.001.84%
LOSSSantiago Wanderers - Union La Calera5.001.84%
WINLangsning SC - Mumbay5.001.84%
WINFC Tallinn - FC Flora Tallinn II5.001.84%
LOSSLeones de Rosario - Newell's5.001.84%
Active Similar Predictions
MatchPickOddExp. ROIKickoff
Al Adalh - Al Fayha15.001.84%17 Aug 20:00
Pick
1 @ 5.00
Kickoff
Ago 20, 2026 10:30 PM
Confidence
CONF: LOW
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 1.84% • n=67
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
1.84% • n=67
Start
Starts in 4d 4h
Updated
Updated 33m ago
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