Model: TipTromba45H

Nacional Senac vs CD Municipal Tarija

PREDICTION

@ 4.33

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffLug 18, 2026 11:00 PM

ResultLOSS0 - 1

StartStarted 46d 1h ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 0.68% · n=92

V4 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 0.68% · n=92

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 46d 10h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Nacional Senac. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Nacional SenacGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

46/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Nacional SenacHOME

CD Municipal TarijaAWAY

LLDLD

Recent form

LWDLL

Avg goals scored

0.60

1.00

Defensive weakness

1.40

1.60

Shots on target for

3.20

3.60

SoT conceded pressure

3.00

4.60

Home splitL-L-D-D-L0.60 scored / 1.40 conceded

Away splitW-L1.00 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 4.33. The V4 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 0.68% based on n=92 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar (bo). Odds movement is currently classified as Stable with Low volatility.

Pick1

Odd4.33

V2 BandLOWROI 0.68% · n=92

V4 BandLOWROI 0.68% · n=92

Odds TrendStable

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

The elevated odds reflect a naturally higher-risk profile, especially because recent form does not clearly favor Nacional Senac. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 33.7% 7D: 17.4% 15D: 14.2% 30D: 20.0%

Model insight

Nacional Senac – CD Municipal Tarija Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 4.33. This prediction is generated by the TipTromba45H model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show LOW confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 0.68% and 0.68%. Odds history is still limited because this prediction has only recently appeared in the monitored bookmaker panel. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample21

Win Rate38.1%

Profit+12.49u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Worcester City (W) - Barnsley FC (W)	4.33	0.68%
LOSS	Arterivo Wakayama - Azul Claro Numazu	4.33	0.68%
LOSS	Jeunesse Esch - Bissen	4.33	0.68%
LOSS	Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) - Independiente del Valle (W)	4.33	0.68%
LOSS	Gor Mahia - Al Hilal Omdurman	4.33	0.68%
LOSS	Farnham - Yeovil	4.33	0.68%
WIN	Boston City FC U20 - America MG U20	4.33	0.68%
WIN	Byåsen - Melhus	4.33	0.68%

Pick

1 @ 4.33

Kickoff

Lug 18, 2026 11:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 0.68% • n=92

Confidence V4

CONF V4: LOW

Exp. ROI V4

0.68% • n=92

Start

Started 46d 1h ago

Updated

Updated 46d 10h ago