Model: TIPPSA

Nagoya Grampus vs Fagiano Okayama

PREDICTION

@ 2.81

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffAgo 29, 2026 2:00 PM

ResultPending

StartStarted 1h 47m ago

V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -1.07% · n=461

V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 3h 57m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Fagiano Okayama. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Fagiano OkayamaGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.068 | A: -0.059

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

29/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.83First seen

Current2.88Now

Max odds2.88Highest point

Min odds2.83Lowest point

VolatilityLowStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Nagoya GrampusHOME

Fagiano OkayamaAWAY

LWLLL

Recent form

WDWLL

Avg goals scored

1.20

Defensive weakness

1.80

1.00

Shots on target for

6.00

4.00

SoT conceded pressure

6.00

4.20

Home splitL-W-L-D-W1.80 scored / 1.40 conceded

Away splitL-L-L-L-L0.60 scored / 2.40 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.81. The V2 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -1.07% based on n=461 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Japan J-League (jp). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Low volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.81

V2 BandNONEROI -1.07% · n=461

V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

While the odds remain elevated, the underlying metrics suggest the selection may be more competitive than the market implies. The model does not assign a strong confidence profile here, making the pick more speculative.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: -13.2% 7D: 23.4% 15D: 14.4% 30D: 11.3%

Model insight

Nagoya Grampus – Fagiano Okayama Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.81. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is NONE, with a historical expected ROI of -1.07% across 461 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample59

Win Rate40.7%

Profit+10.22u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	FC Voluntari - Otelul Galati	2.81	-1.07%
WIN	Enppi - Wadi Degla	2.94	-1.07%
WIN	Cancun FC - Club Atletico La Paz	2.85	-1.07%
WIN	Al Fateh SC - Al Ittifaq Dammam	2.85	-1.07%
LOSS	Fulham - VfB Stuttgart	2.94	-1.07%
LOSS	Mold Alexandra - Holyhead Hotspur	2.98	-1.07%
LOSS	Kubikenborgs IF - Täfteå IK	2.92	-1.07%
LOSS	Mineros de Zacatecas - Venados FC	3.01	-1.07%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
Khor Fakkan - Al Dhafra SCC	2	2.96	-1.07%	29 Aug 15:55

Pick

2 @ 2.81

Kickoff

Ago 29, 2026 2:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: NONE

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI -1.07% • n=461

Start

Started 1h 47m ago

Updated

Updated 3h 57m ago