Napoli (W) – Parma (W)

Model: TIPPSA

Napoli (W) vs Parma (W)

PREDICTION
2
@ 2.80
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffSet 06, 2026 5:00 PM
ResultLOSS1 - 0
StartStarted 1d 8h ago
V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -1.07% · n=461
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 1d 10h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Parma (W). This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Parma (W)Goal/Shots Index — H: -0.098 | A: -0.106

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

29/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.70First seen
Current3.00Now
Max odds3.00Highest point
Min odds2.70Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Napoli (W)HOME
VS
Parma (W)AWAY
WLLDD
Recent form
LLLLW
Avg goals scored
0.80
0.80
Defensive weakness
2.20
1.60
Shots on target for
4.60
4.40
SoT conceded pressure
6.00
5.40
Home splitW-D-L-W2.00 scored / 1.25 conceded
Away splitL-L-L-L-D0.80 scored / 2.20 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.80. The V2 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -1.07% based on n=461 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Italy Serie A Cup Women (it). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2
Odd2.80
V2 BandNONEROI -1.07% · n=461
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The current odds underline the speculative nature of the pick, particularly given the recent form imbalance. Confidence remains limited, so this should be read as a cautious lean rather than a strong prediction.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 3.5% 7D: 11.8% 15D: 11.2% 30D: 6.2%
Model insight

Napoli (W) – Parma (W) Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.80. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is NONE, with a historical expected ROI of -1.07% across 461 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample74
Win Rate37.8%
Profit+6.55u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSCeske Budejovice (W) - FK Teplice (W)2.78-1.07%
LOSSZeljeznicar - Velez Mostar3.03-1.07%
LOSSAscoli - Benevento2.88-1.07%
LOSSEastern SC - Kowloon City2.84-1.07%
LOSSChippa United - Milford FC2.77-1.07%
WINFlekkerøy - Madla2.84-1.07%
LOSSPonnistus - JäPS/472.96-1.07%
LOSSNK Nafta 1903 - NK Radomlje2.94-1.07%
Pick
2 @ 2.80
Kickoff
Set 06, 2026 5:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: NONE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI -1.07% • n=461
Start
Started 1d 8h ago
Updated
Updated 1d 10h ago
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