Nelson Suburbs – Ferrymead Bays

Model: TipTromba35H

Nelson Suburbs vs Ferrymead Bays

PREDICTION
1
@ 3.10
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 24, 2026 4:00 AM
ResultLOSS2 - 3
StartStarted 48d 20h ago
V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 0.01% · n=821
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 48d 22h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Nelson Suburbs. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Nelson Suburbs

Shots Rating

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

36/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.28First seen
Current3.10Now
Max odds3.50Highest point
Min odds2.28Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Nelson SuburbsHOME
VS
Ferrymead BaysAWAY
LWLLW
Recent form
WDWWW
Avg goals scored
2.40
2.40
Defensive weakness
2.80
0.80
Shots on target for
7.80
4.40
SoT conceded pressure
6.00
2.20
Home splitL-L-W-W3.25 scored / 2.00 conceded
Away splitW-D-W-W2.25 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 3.10. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 0.01% based on n=821 historical similar picks. The match belongs to New Zealand Southern League (nz). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd3.10
V2 BandLOWROI 0.01% · n=821
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The selection carries significant risk according to both market expectations and recent form indicators. The model does not assign a strong confidence profile here, making the pick more speculative. Nelson Suburbs has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 40.0% 7D: 31.8% 15D: 24.4% 30D: 9.2%
Model insight

Nelson Suburbs – Ferrymead Bays Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 3.10. This prediction is generated by the TipTromba35H model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 0.01% across 821 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Pick
1 @ 3.10
Kickoff
Mag 24, 2026 4:00 AM
Confidence
CONF: LOW
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 0.01% • n=821
Start
Started 48d 20h ago
Updated
Updated 48d 22h ago
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