Model: TIPPSA
Newcastle Jets NPL – Hurstville FC
PREDICTION
2
@ 3.03
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 23, 2026 11:00 AM
ResultWIN0 - 1
StartStarted 3d 12h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.96% · n=166
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 3d 22h ago
Team Form & Goal Trends
Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.
| Metric | Newcastle Jets NPL | Hurstville FC |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 form | L-W-L-D-W | W-W-D-L-L |
| Avg goals scored | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Avg goals conceded | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Home/Away form | L-L-L-W (home) | W-L-L (away) |
| Home/Away avg goals | 2.00 scored / 2.75 conceded | 1.00 scored / 1.33 conceded |
| Shots on target | 7.80 for / 8.40 against | 4.60 for / 4.60 against |
| Home/Away shots on target | 4.75 for / 4.50 against (home) | 4.33 for / 7.67 against (away) |
AI Match Insight
The market prices Hurstville FC as an outsider, but recent form does not suggest a gap wide enough to completely dismiss the selection. The model gives this selection a reasonable profile, although the confidence level remains measured.
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.88First seen
Current3.14Now
Max odds3.14Highest point
Min odds2.50Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term
Model insight
Newcastle Jets NPL – Hurstville FC Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 2 at odds 3.03. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 4.96% across 166 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample11
Win Rate36.4%
Profit+1.59u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | Cadiz - Leganes | 2.86 | 4.96% |
| LOSS | Widzew Lodz - Piast Gliwice | 3.28 | 4.77% |
| LOSS | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng - Dalian Young Boy | 2.88 | 4.96% |
| LOSS | Deportivo Cuenca - Tecnico Universitario | 3.25 | 2.94% |
| LOSS | Huesca - Real Zaragoza | 3.15 | 2.92% |
| WIN | Bryne - Odd BK | 3.28 | 2.94% |
| WIN | Finn Harps - Athlone Town | 3.19 | 2.92% |
| LOSS | Solomon Kings FC - Vanuatu United | 2.80 | 2.92% |
Pick
2 @ 3.03
Kickoff
Mag 23, 2026 11:00 AM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 4.96% • n=166
Start
Started 3d 12h ago
Updated
Updated 3d 22h ago