MHI Nagasaki – Nippon Steel Oita

Model: TipTromba5H

MHI Nagasaki vs Nippon Steel Oita

PREDICTION
1
@ 4.75
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffGiu 27, 2026 6:00 AM
ResultLOSS1 - 1
StartStarted 47d 14h ago
V2 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 7.69% · n=45
V4 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 7.69% · n=45
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 47d 16h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is MHI Nagasaki. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: MHI NagasakiGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

73/100
Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds11.00First seen
Current4.75Now
Max odds11.00Highest point
Min odds4.75Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

MHI NagasakiHOME
VS
Nippon Steel OitaAWAY
DL
Recent form
DDDDL
Avg goals scored
0.50
0.60
Defensive weakness
2.00
0.80
Shots on target for
2.50
2.40
SoT conceded pressure
6.00
5.20
Home splitD-L0.50 scored / 2.00 conceded
Away splitD-D-D-L1.00 scored / 1.25 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 4.75. The V4 confidence band is HIGH with an expected ROI of 7.69% based on n=45 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Japan Regional League (jp). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd4.75
V2 BandHIGHROI 7.69% · n=45
V4 BandHIGHROI 7.69% · n=45
Odds TrendDropping
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The selection carries significant risk according to both market expectations and recent form indicators. The selection falls within a stronger historical confidence range, which makes the higher price more interesting.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.
3D: -10.2% 7D: -9.3% 15D: -7.5% 30D: -0.8%
Model insight

MHI Nagasaki – Nippon Steel Oita Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 4.75. This prediction is generated by the TipTromba5H model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show HIGH confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 7.69% and 7.69%. Historical expected profitability for this profile has been well above average, although future outcomes remain sensitive to market and team-news conditions. The available sample size is still relatively limited, which may increase performance variability. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The prediction received strong market support after the first appearance. Early prices historically produced the best long-term performance for this model profile. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample37
Win Rate24.3%
Profit+4.00u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
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LOSSBurkina Faso (W) - South Africa (W)4.506.25%
LOSSTJ Dvorniky - Vcelare - Spartak Medzev4.506.25%
WINFK Klasterec nad Ohri - FK Ostrov4.506.25%
LOSSSolihull Moors - Northampton4.507.29%
LOSSRoyale Union Hutoise - RFC Meux4.507.29%
Pick
1 @ 4.75
Kickoff
Giu 27, 2026 6:00 AM
Confidence
CONF: HIGH
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 7.69% • n=45
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
7.69% • n=45
Start
Started 47d 14h ago
Updated
Updated 47d 16h ago
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