Model: TipA1
Pachuca – Toluca
PREDICTION
2
@ 2.10
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 11, 2026 5:07 AM
ResultLOSS2 - 0
StartStarted 15d 23h ago
V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -1.48% · n=553
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 16d 5h ago
Team Form & Goal Trends
Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.
| Metric | Pachuca | Toluca |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 form | W-W-L-L-W | L-W-L-L-W |
| Avg goals scored | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| Avg goals conceded | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Home/Away form | W-L-W (home) | L-L-L-L-W (away) |
| Home/Away avg goals | 2.00 scored / 1.33 conceded | 1.60 scored / 2.00 conceded |
| Shots on target | 4.20 for / 5.40 against | 6.40 for / 3.80 against |
| Home/Away shots on target | 5.33 for / 2.67 against (home) | 4.40 for / 4.60 against (away) |
AI Match Insight
The matchup looks relatively balanced, so the value of the pick depends more on the model profile than on a clear form advantage. Confidence remains limited, so this should be read as a cautious lean rather than a strong prediction. Toluca has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.15First seen
Current2.32Now
Max odds2.38Highest point
Min odds2.05Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term
Model insight
Pachuca – Toluca Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.10. This prediction is generated by the TipA1 model profile. The V2 confidence band is NONE, with a historical expected ROI of -1.48% across 553 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample106
Win Rate55.7%
Profit+16.55u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIN | Brisbane Olympic FC - Lions FC | 2.00 | -1.48% |
| LOSS | FK Zhenys (W) - FK Kyzylzhar (W) | 2.05 | -1.48% |
| WIN | Albion FC Reserves - Boston River Reserves | 2.20 | -1.48% |
| WIN | Sao Paulo U20 (W) - Flamengo U20 (W) | 2.10 | -3.85% |
| WIN | Jagiellonia Bialystok U19 - Gornik Zabrze U19 | 2.05 | -1.48% |
| LOSS | JK Tallinna Kalev II - FC Levadia Tallinn U19 | 2.10 | -1.48% |
| WIN | FA 2000 - Nykobing | 2.15 | -1.48% |
| LOSS | Atletico Ottawa - Forge FC | 2.00 | -1.48% |
Active Similar Predictions
| Match | Pick | Odd | Exp. ROI | Kickoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anioly Garczegorze - Arka Gdynia II | 2 | 2.10 | -1.48% | 27 May 18:00 |
| Supra du Quebec - Inter Toronto | 2 | 2.00 | -1.48% | 30 May 01:00 |
Pick
2 @ 2.10
Kickoff
Mag 11, 2026 5:07 AM
Confidence
CONF: NONE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI -1.48% • n=553
Start
Started 15d 23h ago
Updated
Updated 16d 5h ago