Model: TipTromba5H

Polonia Nysa vs Lechia Zielona Góra

PREDICTION

@ 4.50

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffMag 13, 2026 8:00 PM

ResultLOSS0 - 1

StartStarted 82d 1h ago

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.22% · n=89

V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.22% · n=89

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 82d 18h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Polonia Nysa. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Polonia NysaGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

53/100

Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds4.50First seen

Current4.92Now

Max odds5.12Highest point

Min odds4.50Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Polonia NysaHOME

Lechia Zielona GóraAWAY

LLLDW

Recent form

WWWDW

Avg goals scored

1.00

1.20

Defensive weakness

1.00

0.00

Shots on target for

4.20

4.40

SoT conceded pressure

6.20

2.40

Home splitL-L-D-L-L1.00 scored / 2.00 conceded

Away splitW-W-W1.67 scored / 0.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 4.50. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 2.22% based on n=89 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Poland III Liga (pl). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1

Odd4.50

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 2.22% · n=89

V4 BandMEDIUMROI 2.22% · n=89

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The selection carries significant risk according to both market expectations and recent form indicators. The model gives this selection a reasonable profile, although the confidence level remains measured.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.

3D: -4.3% 7D: -3.6% 15D: -10.8% 30D: -1.2%

Model insight

Polonia Nysa – Lechia Zielona Góra Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 4.50. This prediction is generated by the TipTromba5H model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 2.22% and 2.22%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample33

Win Rate15.2%

Profit-10.25u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	SK Steti - Varnsdorf	4.50	4.05%
WIN	Fortaleza CEIF (W) - Independiente Medellin (W)	4.50	4.05%
LOSS	Al Ahli Jeddah - Fulham	4.50	4.05%
LOSS	Kolding IF (W) - Fortuna Hjørring (W)	4.50	4.05%
WIN	Truro City - Exeter	4.50	4.05%
WIN	Boreham Wood - Watford	4.75	3.53%
LOSS	Sutton Coldfield - Leamington	4.50	4.05%
LOSS	Pinda FC U20 - Taubate U20	4.50	4.05%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
Sawmer SC - Rangdajied United FC	1	4.50	4.05%	04 Aug 12:30
Bronshoj BK - HB Køge	1	4.50	4.05%	04 Aug 18:30

Pick

1 @ 4.50

Kickoff

Mag 13, 2026 8:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 2.22% • n=89

Confidence V4

CONF V4: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V4

2.22% • n=89

Start

Started 82d 1h ago

Updated

Updated 82d 18h ago