Rotherham – Derby

Model: TipTromba4H

Rotherham vs Derby

PREDICTION
1
@ 3.90
StatusUpcoming
KickoffAgo 04, 2026 10:30 PM
ResultPending
StartStarts in 23h 8m
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.84% · n=104
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.84% · n=104
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 4h 25m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Rotherham. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: RotherhamGoal/Shots Index — H: -0.025 | A: 0.061

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

58/100
Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.96First seen
Current4.41Now
Max odds4.41Highest point
Min odds2.96Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

RotherhamHOME
VS
DerbyAWAY
WLWDD
Recent form
LWLLW
Avg goals scored
1.00
1.40
Defensive weakness
0.80
1.40
Shots on target for
3.60
3.80
SoT conceded pressure
3.40
5.00
Home splitL-D-L-L-D0.40 scored / 1.60 conceded
Away splitL-W-W-W-L1.80 scored / 1.20 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 3.90. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.84% based on n=104 historical similar picks. The match belongs to UK Friendlies (gb). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd3.90
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.84% · n=104
V4 BandMEDIUMROI 4.84% · n=104
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

While the odds remain elevated, the underlying metrics suggest the selection may be more competitive than the market implies. This sits in a middle confidence range, suggesting a balanced but not especially dominant setup.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 40.7% 7D: 12.0% 15D: 5.5% 30D: 11.0%
Model insight

Rotherham – Derby Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 3.90. This prediction is generated by the TipTromba4H model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 4.84% and 4.84%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample72
Win Rate30.6%
Profit+11.35u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSZalaszentgroti VFC - SC Sopron3.804.84%
LOSSFuerte San Francisco - Internacional Santa Tecla3.754.09%
LOSSNewport County - Reading3.754.84%
WINEnfield Town - AFC Hornchurch3.804.09%
LOSSHereford FC - Solihull Moors3.754.09%
LOSSSwindon - Bristol City3.904.09%
LOSSCD INCA - Alianza FC3.904.09%
WINYmir Kopavogur - KH Hlidarendi3.754.09%
Pick
1 @ 3.90
Kickoff
Ago 04, 2026 10:30 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 4.84% • n=104
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
4.84% • n=104
Start
Starts in 23h 8m
Updated
Updated 4h 25m ago
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