Model: TIPPSA
Samgurali – Dinamo Tbilisi
PREDICTION
2
@ 2.26
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffApr 25, 2026 8:00 PM
ResultWIN1 - 2
StartStarted 31d 5h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.31% · n=578
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 31d 9h ago
Team Form & Goal Trends
Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.
| Metric | Samgurali | Dinamo Tbilisi |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 form | L-L-L-L-W | W-L-D-D-D |
| Avg goals scored | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Avg goals conceded | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| Home/Away form | L-L-W (home) | W-D (away) |
| Home/Away avg goals | 1.00 scored / 1.33 conceded | 1.00 scored / 0.50 conceded |
| Shots on target | 4.00 for / 6.40 against | 6.00 for / 3.60 against |
| Home/Away shots on target | 5.00 for / 6.00 against (home) | 7.00 for / 5.00 against (away) |
AI Match Insight
The price is not extreme, and recent results provide a reasonable statistical basis for the pick. The confidence profile is moderate, so the pick has statistical support but should not be treated as a low-risk prediction. Dinamo Tbilisi is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.05First seen
Current2.26Now
Max odds2.26Highest point
Min odds2.05Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term
Model insight
Samgurali – Dinamo Tbilisi Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.26. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 3.31% across 578 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample147
Win Rate43.5%
Profit-3.17u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | SC Kiryat Yam - Maccabi Petah Tikva | 2.25 | 3.43% |
| LOSS | Glasgow City (W) - Rangers (W) | 2.05 | 2.63% |
| LOSS | Lobos UPNFM Reserves - CD Marathon Reserves | 2.18 | 2.63% |
| LOSS | Radnik Bijeljina - Borac Banja Luka | 2.18 | 2.63% |
| LOSS | ADO Den Haag (W) - PEC Zwolle (W) | 2.25 | 4.13% |
| WIN | Guayaquil City - Orense | 2.48 | 3.59% |
| LOSS | AFC Hermannstadt - FCSB | 2.26 | 3.31% |
| LOSS | Kasimpasa - Galatasaray | 2.27 | 3.31% |
Pick
2 @ 2.26
Kickoff
Apr 25, 2026 8:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 3.31% • n=578
Start
Started 31d 5h ago
Updated
Updated 31d 9h ago