Model: TIPPSA

SC Farense vs CF Os Belenenses

PREDICTION

@ 4.56

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffMag 23, 2026 11:30 PM

ResultLOSS1 - 0

StartStarted 48d 19h ago

V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 0.28% · n=94

V4 ConfidenceELITEExpected ROI 10.33% · n=40

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 48d 21h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is CF Os Belenenses. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: CF Os Belenenses

Shots Rating

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

81/100

Excellent value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds3.40First seen

Current4.56Now

Max odds4.56Highest point

Min odds3.40Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

SC FarenseHOME

CF Os BelenensesAWAY

WLDWD

Recent form

LWWDD

Avg goals scored

1.00

1.60

Defensive weakness

0.40

1.20

Shots on target for

3.40

6.00

SoT conceded pressure

4.40

3.80

Home splitW-D-D-W-L0.80 scored / 0.60 conceded

Away splitL-W-D-L-W1.20 scored / 1.20 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 4.56. The V4 confidence band is ELITE with an expected ROI of 10.33% based on n=40 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Portugal Segunda Liga Play-Offs (pt). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2

Odd4.56

V2 BandLOWROI 0.28% · n=94

V4 BandELITEROI 10.33% · n=40

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The current odds imply an underdog profile, although recent performances indicate a more competitive matchup. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated. CF Os Belenenses has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 33.7% 7D: 34.7% 15D: 21.5% 30D: 8.5%

Model insight

SC Farense – CF Os Belenenses Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 4.56. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 0.28% across 94 similar predictions. The V4 confidence band is ELITE, with a historical expected ROI of 10.33% across 40 historical samples. Historical expected profitability for this profile has been well above average, although future outcomes remain sensitive to market and team-news conditions. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Pick

2 @ 4.56

Kickoff

Mag 23, 2026 11:30 PM

Confidence

CONF: LOW

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 0.28% • n=94

Confidence V4

CONF V4: ELITE

Exp. ROI V4

10.33% • n=40

Start

Started 48d 19h ago

Updated

Updated 48d 21h ago