Southend – Northampton

Model: TipTromba12H

Southend vs Northampton

PREDICTION
1
@ 9.00
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffLug 22, 2026 10:30 PM
ResultLOSS1 - 3
StartStarted 1h 26m ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.68% · n=18
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 20h 20m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Southend. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: SouthendGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.015 | A: -0.040

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

57/100
Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds7.50First seen
Current9.10Now
Max odds9.10Highest point
Min odds7.50Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

SouthendHOME
VS
NorthamptonAWAY
LDLDL
Recent form
WDLLL
Avg goals scored
0.60
1.00
Defensive weakness
1.40
1.60
Shots on target for
3.60
3.20
SoT conceded pressure
4.20
5.80
Home splitL-D-D-W-D0.80 scored / 1.00 conceded
Away splitW-L-L-L-L1.00 scored / 2.40 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 9.00. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 2.68% based on n=18 historical similar picks. The match belongs to UK Friendlies (gb). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd9.00
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 2.68% · n=18
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

Recent performances only partially support the selection, which helps explain the higher market price. The confidence profile is moderate, so the pick has statistical support but should not be treated as a low-risk prediction.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 24.4% 7D: 25.3% 15D: 19.4% 30D: 22.4%
Model insight

Southend – Northampton Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 9.00. This prediction is generated by the TipTromba12H model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 2.68% across 18 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The available sample size is still relatively limited, which may increase performance variability. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample10
Win Rate0.0%
Profit-10.00u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSDartford - Charlton9.002.68%
LOSSSIF - VIFK9.002.23%
LOSSShenzhen 2028 - Shaanxi Union9.003.44%
LOSSSlovacko (W) - Slavia Prague (W)9.002.23%
LOSSSpring Hills FC (W) - Bulleen Lions (W)9.002.23%
LOSSPWD Sports Club - Dhaka Abahani9.002.23%
LOSSPara Hills Knights - West Adelaide9.002.23%
LOSSJyTy - EuPa9.002.23%
Active Similar Predictions
MatchPickOddExp. ROIKickoff
Peterhead - Kilmarnock19.002.68%25 Jul 16:00
Pick
1 @ 9.00
Kickoff
Lug 22, 2026 10:30 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 2.68% • n=18
Start
Started 1h 26m ago
Updated
Updated 20h 20m ago
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