Model: TIPPSA

Sportivo Ameliano vs Nacional Asuncion

PREDICTION

@ 2.47

StatusUpcoming

KickoffLug 26, 2026 1:30 AM

ResultPending

StartStarts in 4h 26m

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.59% · n=214

V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 7m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Nacional Asuncion. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Nacional AsuncionGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

42/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.60First seen

Current2.55Now

Max odds2.60Highest point

Min odds2.38Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Sportivo AmelianoHOME

Nacional AsuncionAWAY

LLWDD

Recent form

WDWWW

Avg goals scored

1.20

1.60

Defensive weakness

1.40

0.80

Shots on target for

4.00

5.20

SoT conceded pressure

3.40

1.80

Home splitL-W-D-D1.75 scored / 1.75 conceded

Away splitD-W-D-L0.75 scored / 1.25 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.47. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 3.59% based on n=214 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Paraguay Division Profesional (py). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with High volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.47

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 3.59% · n=214

V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0

Odds TrendDropping

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The market offers a relatively high price, but recent statistical trends still provide meaningful support for Nacional Asuncion. The confidence profile is moderate, so the pick has statistical support but should not be treated as a low-risk prediction. Nacional Asuncion has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 8.8% 7D: 19.4% 15D: 16.4% 30D: 23.2%

Model insight

Sportivo Ameliano – Nacional Asuncion Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.47. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 3.59% across 214 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample163

Win Rate41.1%

Profit+1.61u

Historical Similar Predictions

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LOSS	Austin FC - Seattle Sounders	2.30	3.43%
WIN	IFK Varnamo - Ljungskile	2.54	3.59%
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WIN	Craigavon City (W) - Ballymoney United (W)	2.34	3.43%
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LOSS	Union La Calera - Universidad de Chile	2.29	3.59%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
Retro FC Brasil - America RN	2	2.70	3.31%	30 Apr 02:30

Pick

2 @ 2.47

Kickoff

Lug 26, 2026 1:30 AM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 3.59% • n=214

Start

Starts in 4h 26m

Updated

Updated 7m ago