Ursus Warsawa – MKS Piaseczno

Model: TIPPSH

Ursus Warsawa vs MKS Piaseczno

PREDICTION
1
@ 2.16
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffAgo 08, 2026 1:00 PM
ResultLOSS1 - 1
StartStarted 20h 21m ago
V2 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 1.04% · n=5438
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 22h 25m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Ursus Warsawa. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Ursus WarsawaGoal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

30/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.00First seen
Current2.16Now
Max odds2.26Highest point
Min odds2.00Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Ursus WarsawaHOME
VS
MKS PiasecznoAWAY
DWWWD
Recent form
DWWD
Avg goals scored
3.20
2.75
Defensive weakness
2.40
2.00
Shots on target for
6.33
6.00
SoT conceded pressure
3.00
6.50
Home splitD-W-W-W-D3.20 scored / 2.40 conceded
Away splitD-W-D2.67 scored / 2.33 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.16. The V2 confidence band is LOW with an expected ROI of 1.04% based on n=5438 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Poland IV Liga (pl). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick1
Odd2.16
V2 BandLOWROI 1.04% · n=5438
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

This looks like a competitive matchup, although the form profile gives the selected side some support. The model does not assign a strong confidence profile here, making the pick more speculative.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 17.4% 7D: 16.7% 15D: 6.9% 30D: 11.0%
Model insight

Ursus Warsawa – MKS Piaseczno Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.16. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 1.04% across 5438 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample457
Win Rate47.3%
Profit-0.93u
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Pick
1 @ 2.16
Kickoff
Ago 08, 2026 1:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: LOW
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 1.04% • n=5438
Start
Started 20h 21m ago
Updated
Updated 22h 25m ago
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