Waterford FC – Dundalk

Model: TIPPSA

Waterford FC vs Dundalk

PREDICTION
2
@ 3.10
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffSet 11, 2026 10:45 PM
ResultLOSS1 - 1
StartStarted 10h 11m ago
V2 ConfidenceNONEExpected ROI -1.07% · n=461
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 12h 38m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Dundalk. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: DundalkGoal/Shots Index — H: 0.098 | A: -0.089

Shots Rating

H
A
i

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Away edge

Shots on Target

H
A
i

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Away edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V2) and market odds.

32/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.62First seen
Current3.07Now
Max odds3.07Highest point
Min odds2.62Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Waterford FCHOME
VS
DundalkAWAY
DWWDW
Recent form
DLWLW
Avg goals scored
1.60
3.00
Defensive weakness
0.40
1.80
Shots on target for
6.20
7.60
SoT conceded pressure
3.80
4.40
Home splitD-W-W-W-W2.00 scored / 0.60 conceded
Away splitD-L-W-L-D1.80 scored / 2.20 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 3.10. The V2 confidence band is NONE with an expected ROI of -1.07% based on n=461 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Republic of Ireland Premier Division (ie). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2
Odd3.10
V2 BandNONEROI -1.07% · n=461
V4 BandUNKNOWNROI 0.00% · n=0
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The elevated odds reflect a naturally higher-risk profile, especially because recent form does not clearly favor Dundalk. This selection carries a lower-confidence signal, so the risk profile remains elevated. Dundalk is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is mixed. Recent results show alternating performance between short-term and medium-term windows.
3D: -11.0% 7D: -3.5% 15D: 3.4% 30D: 5.7%
Model insight

Waterford FC – Dundalk Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 3.10. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is NONE, with a historical expected ROI of -1.07% across 461 similar predictions. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample91
Win Rate33.0%
Profit+0.17u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
LOSSClermont Foot - Boulogne3.13-1.07%
LOSSZeljeznicar - Velez Mostar3.03-1.07%
LOSSAscoli - Benevento2.88-1.07%
WINFC Utrecht - Go Ahead Eagles3.20-1.07%
LOSSPonnistus - JäPS/472.96-1.07%
LOSSNK Nafta 1903 - NK Radomlje2.94-1.07%
LOSSSantos - Palmeiras3.08-1.07%
WINFC Arges Pitesti - FCSB2.85-1.07%
Pick
2 @ 3.10
Kickoff
Set 11, 2026 10:45 PM
Confidence
CONF: NONE
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI -1.07% • n=461
Start
Started 10h 11m ago
Updated
Updated 12h 38m ago
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