Model: TIPPSH
Kataller Toyama – Albirex Niigata
PREDICTION
1
@ 2.24
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffApr 29, 2026 9:00 AM
ResultWIN2 - 0
StartStarted 28d 1h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.86% · n=299
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.86% · n=299
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 28d 3h ago
Team Form & Goal Trends
Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.
| Metric | Kataller Toyama | Albirex Niigata |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 form | W-W-W-W-W | L-W-W-L-D |
| Avg goals scored | 3.00 | 0.60 |
| Avg goals conceded | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Home/Away form | W-W-W (home) | L-L (away) |
| Home/Away avg goals | 3.67 scored / 0.67 conceded | 0.50 scored / 2.00 conceded |
| Shots on target | 6.20 for / 3.60 against | 3.80 for / 6.80 against |
| Home/Away shots on target | 6.67 for / 3.00 against (home) | 2.00 for / 7.50 against (away) |
AI Match Insight
The price is not extreme, and recent results provide a reasonable statistical basis for the pick. This sits in a middle confidence range, suggesting a balanced but not especially dominant setup. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Kataller Toyama's attacking profile.
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds1.85First seen
Current2.24Now
Max odds2.24Highest point
Min odds1.85Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term
Model insight
Kataller Toyama – Albirex Niigata Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.24. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 4.86% and 4.86%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample136
Win Rate44.1%
Profit-9.66u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | Bangor Celtic FC - St Mochtas | 2.27 | 2.49% |
| LOSS | AF Chilibre - Deportivo Ana Luisa Flores | 2.12 | 3.37% |
| WIN | Ascoli - Catania | 2.28 | 2.49% |
| WIN | 29 de Septiembre FBC - Club General Martin Ledesma | 2.31 | 3.15% |
| LOSS | Central & Western - Hoi King | 2.20 | 3.37% |
| WIN | Kariya - Gakunan F Mosuperio | 2.28 | 2.49% |
| WIN | Leones de Rosario - General Lamadrid | 2.38 | 2.49% |
| LOSS | B36 Torshavn II - Vikingur Gota II | 2.21 | 3.37% |
Pick
1 @ 2.24
Kickoff
Apr 29, 2026 9:00 AM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 4.86% • n=299
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
4.86% • n=299
Start
Started 28d 1h ago
Updated
Updated 28d 3h ago