Model: TIPPSA
Los Angeles FC – Toluca
PREDICTION
2
@ 3.00
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffApr 30, 2026 6:30 AM
ResultLOSS2 - 1
StartStarted 27d ago
V2 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 5.70% · n=134
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 27d 2h ago
Team Form & Goal Trends
Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.
| Metric | Los Angeles FC | Toluca |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 form | W-W-D-L-D | L-W-L-L-W |
| Avg goals scored | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| Avg goals conceded | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Home/Away form | W-D-L-W-W (home) | L-L-L-W-L (away) |
| Home/Away avg goals | 2.40 scored / 1.00 conceded | 1.60 scored / 1.80 conceded |
| Shots on target | 3.20 for / 5.00 against | 5.20 for / 4.80 against |
| Home/Away shots on target | 4.40 for / 4.60 against (home) | 4.80 for / 4.80 against (away) |
AI Match Insight
Recent performances only partially support the selection, which helps explain the higher market price. The HIGH confidence band is important here: similar higher-priced setups have historically produced positive model results. Toluca has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds3.01First seen
Current3.20Now
Max odds3.80Highest point
Min odds3.01Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term
Model insight
Los Angeles FC – Toluca Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 2 at odds 3.00. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is HIGH, with a historical expected ROI of 5.70% across 134 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample26
Win Rate46.2%
Profit+8.82u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | FC Kitzbuhel - Hohenems | 2.82 | 7.70% |
| WIN | Maccabi Panthers Ashdod (W) - FC Ramat Hasharon (W) | 2.83 | 7.70% |
| LOSS | Deportivo Moquegua - AD Tarma | 2.94 | 6.31% |
| LOSS | Madura United - Bali United | 2.82 | 5.70% |
| LOSS | Bayer Leverkusen - RB Leipzig | 3.00 | 6.31% |
| WIN | Aubagne Air Bel - Stade Briochin | 2.76 | 5.70% |
| LOSS | Nantes (W) - Lyon (W) | 3.01 | 6.31% |
| WIN | Strasbourg (W) - Le Havre (W) | 3.02 | 5.70% |
Pick
2 @ 3.00
Kickoff
Apr 30, 2026 6:30 AM
Confidence
CONF: HIGH
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 5.70% • n=134
Start
Started 27d ago
Updated
Updated 27d 2h ago