Model: TIPPSA
Gernika – Alaves B
PREDICTION
2
@ 2.35
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 03, 2026 2:00 PM
ResultLOSS0 - 0
StartStarted 23d 17h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.31% · n=578
V4 ConfidenceLOWExpected ROI 0.40% · n=230
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 23d 20h ago
Team Form & Goal Trends
Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.
| Metric | Gernika | Alaves B |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 form | D-D-D-W-L | D-W-W-W-L |
| Avg goals scored | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| Avg goals conceded | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| Home/Away form | D-D-L (home) | D-W-W (away) |
| Home/Away avg goals | 0.33 scored / 0.67 conceded | 1.33 scored / 0.67 conceded |
| Shots on target | 2.00 for / 4.00 against | 4.20 for / 1.40 against |
| Home/Away shots on target | 2.33 for / 3.00 against (home) | 3.33 for / 1.67 against (away) |
AI Match Insight
In a fairly competitive price range, recent form gives Alaves B a useful statistical edge. This sits in a middle confidence range, suggesting a balanced but not especially dominant setup. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Alaves B's attacking profile.
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.25First seen
Current2.37Now
Max odds2.37Highest point
Min odds2.05Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term
Model insight
Gernika – Alaves B Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.35. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 3.31% across 578 similar predictions. The V4 confidence band is LOW, with a historical expected ROI of 0.40% across 230 historical samples. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample144
Win Rate41.0%
Profit-5.24u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | SC Kiryat Yam - Maccabi Petah Tikva | 2.25 | 3.43% |
| LOSS | Lobos UPNFM Reserves - CD Marathon Reserves | 2.18 | 2.63% |
| LOSS | NK Radomlje - NS Mura | 2.55 | 4.13% |
| LOSS | Radnik Bijeljina - Borac Banja Luka | 2.18 | 2.63% |
| LOSS | ADO Den Haag (W) - PEC Zwolle (W) | 2.25 | 4.13% |
| WIN | Guayaquil City - Orense | 2.48 | 3.59% |
| LOSS | AFC Hermannstadt - FCSB | 2.26 | 3.31% |
| LOSS | Kasimpasa - Galatasaray | 2.27 | 3.31% |
Pick
2 @ 2.35
Kickoff
Mag 03, 2026 2:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 3.31% • n=578
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
0.40% • n=230
Start
Started 23d 17h ago
Updated
Updated 23d 20h ago