Model: TIPPSA

Chongqing Tonglianglong vs Beijing Guoan

PREDICTION

@ 2.52

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffMag 30, 2026 4:00 PM

ResultWIN2 - 3

StartStarted 48d 12h ago

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.43% · n=79

V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.43% · n=79

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 48d 14h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Beijing Guoan. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Beijing Guoan

Shots Rating

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

42/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds1.95First seen

Current2.52Now

Max odds2.52Highest point

Min odds1.76Lowest point

VolatilityHighStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Chongqing TonglianglongHOME

Beijing GuoanAWAY

LWDLD

Recent form

WLDWD

Avg goals scored

1.20

2.20

Defensive weakness

1.60

1.80

Shots on target for

3.00

7.60

SoT conceded pressure

5.40

4.20

Home splitL-D-D-D-W1.20 scored / 1.00 conceded

Away splitW-D-D-W-D1.60 scored / 1.20 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.52. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 3.43% based on n=79 historical similar picks. The match belongs to China Super League (cn). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.52

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 3.43% · n=79

V4 BandMEDIUMROI 3.43% · n=79

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

Despite entering the match at a generous price, Beijing Guoan has produced enough positive indicators to justify attention. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Beijing Guoan's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.

3D: 0.3% 7D: 15.3% 15D: 21.2% 30D: 10.3%

Model insight

Chongqing Tonglianglong – Beijing Guoan Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.52. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 3.43% and 3.43%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample146

Win Rate42.5%

Profit+9.04u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	Lipno Steszew - Unia Swarzedz	2.44	4.13%
WIN	Craigavon City (W) - Ballymoney United (W)	2.34	3.43%
WIN	Santamarina Tandil - Club Villa Mitre	2.65	4.13%
LOSS	Union La Calera - Universidad de Chile	2.29	3.59%
WIN	Maldives - Afghanistan	2.63	4.13%
LOSS	Deportes Recoleta - San Luis Quillota	2.56	3.43%
LOSS	IF Gnistan - SJK	2.51	4.13%
LOSS	NK Radomlje - NS Mura	2.55	4.13%

Active Similar Predictions

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Pick

2 @ 2.52

Kickoff

Mag 30, 2026 4:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 3.43% • n=79

Confidence V4

CONF V4: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V4

3.43% • n=79

Start

Started 48d 12h ago

Updated

Updated 48d 14h ago