Model: TIPPSA
EL Nacional (W) – Quito FC (W)
PREDICTION
2
@ 3.02
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 08, 2026 9:00 PM
ResultWIN1 - 4
StartStarted 37d 13h ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.92% · n=29
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 2.92% · n=29
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 37d 15h ago
Team Form & Goal Trends
Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.
| Metric | EL Nacional (W) | Quito FC (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 form | L-L-L-L-L | W-L-L-L-L |
| Avg goals scored | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| Avg goals conceded | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| Home/Away form | L-L-L (home) | W-L-L (away) |
| Home/Away avg goals | 0.67 scored / 3.00 conceded | 1.67 scored / 2.67 conceded |
| Shots on target | 5.00 for / 13.33 against | 7.00 for / 6.00 against |
| Home/Away shots on target | 6.00 for / 11.00 against (home) | 6.00 for / 6.00 against (away) |
AI Match Insight
While the odds remain elevated, the underlying metrics suggest the selection may be more competitive than the market implies. The confidence profile is moderate, so the pick has statistical support but should not be treated as a low-risk prediction. Quito FC (W) has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.
Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.
3D: -34.8%
7D: -18.4%
15D: -6.7%
30D: 6.2%
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.60First seen
Current2.55Now
Max odds2.60Highest point
Min odds2.55Lowest point
VolatilityLowStable range
TrendDroppingShort term
Model insight
EL Nacional (W) – Quito FC (W) Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 2 at odds 3.02. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 2.92% and 2.92%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The available sample size is still relatively limited, which may increase performance variability. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample13
Win Rate23.1%
Profit-4.11u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | Santamarina Tandil - Kimberley Mar del Plata | 3.01 | 4.96% |
| LOSS | Deportes Copiapo - Santiago Wanderers | 2.92 | 4.96% |
| WIN | New Zealand (W) - Haiti (W) | 2.86 | 4.96% |
| LOSS | Qingdao West Coast - Shanghai Shenhua | 2.91 | 4.96% |
| LOSS | Egypt - Russia | 3.27 | 4.77% |
| LOSS | Cadiz - Leganes | 2.86 | 4.96% |
| LOSS | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng - Dalian Young Boy | 2.88 | 4.96% |
| LOSS | Deportivo Cuenca - Tecnico Universitario | 3.25 | 2.94% |
Pick
2 @ 3.02
Kickoff
Mag 08, 2026 9:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 2.92% • n=29
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
2.92% • n=29
Start
Started 37d 13h ago
Updated
Updated 37d 15h ago