Model: TIPPSA
Goias – Vila Nova
PREDICTION
2
@ 3.89
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 09, 2026 11:00 PM
ResultLOSS1 - 0
StartStarted 17d 11h ago
V2 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 5.37% · n=115
V4 ConfidenceUNKNOWNExpected ROI 0.00% · n=0
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 17d 13h ago
Team Form & Goal Trends
Recent form based on completed matches before kickoff.
| Metric | Goias | Vila Nova |
|---|---|---|
| Last 5 form | W-L-L-D-L | L-D-W-D-W |
| Avg goals scored | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| Avg goals conceded | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| Home/Away form | W-D-L-W (home) | L-W-D-W-D (away) |
| Home/Away avg goals | 1.00 scored / 1.00 conceded | 1.60 scored / 1.40 conceded |
| Shots on target | 2.40 for / 4.20 against | 3.40 for / 2.80 against |
| Home/Away shots on target | 2.75 for / 3.25 against (home) | 3.60 for / 4.00 against (away) |
AI Match Insight
While the odds remain elevated, the underlying metrics suggest the selection may be more competitive than the market implies. The selection falls within a stronger historical confidence range, which makes the higher price more interesting. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to Vila Nova's attacking profile.
Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds3.44First seen
Current3.87Now
Max odds3.90Highest point
Min odds3.44Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term
Model insight
Goias – Vila Nova Betting Analysis
The model currently selects 2 at odds 3.89. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. The V2 confidence band is HIGH, with a historical expected ROI of 5.37% across 115 similar predictions. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample10
Win Rate10.0%
Profit-6.00u
Historical Similar Predictions
| Result | Match | Odd | Exp. ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOSS | Espanyol - Levante | 3.91 | 5.37% |
| LOSS | Vikingur Reykjavik (W) - Stjarnan (W) | 3.87 | 5.37% |
| LOSS | LDU Quito - SD Aucas | 3.96 | 5.37% |
| WIN | MFK Zvolen - Slovan Bratislava B | 4.00 | 5.37% |
| LOSS | IA/Kari/Skall/Viko U19 - Stjarnan/KFG U19 | 3.92 | 5.37% |
| LOSS | Sousa EC - Maguary PE | 3.75 | 5.37% |
| LOSS | Znicz Pruszkow U19 - Resovia Rzeszow U19 | 4.03 | 5.37% |
| LOSS | Sejong SA - Haman | 3.93 | 5.37% |
Pick
2 @ 3.89
Kickoff
Mag 09, 2026 11:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: HIGH
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 5.37% • n=115
Start
Started 17d 11h ago
Updated
Updated 17d 13h ago