Model: TIPPSH

Leixoes vs Lusitania Lourosa

PREDICTION

@ 2.09

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffMag 15, 2026 11:00 PM

ResultWIN2 - 1

StartStarted 57d 18h ago

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.86% · n=299

V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.86% · n=299

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 57d 20h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Leixoes. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Leixoes

Shots Rating

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

43/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.10First seen

Current2.09Now

Max odds2.10Highest point

Min odds2.07Lowest point

VolatilityLowStable range

TrendDroppingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

LeixoesHOME

Lusitania LourosaAWAY

WLWWW

Recent form

LDWLD

Avg goals scored

2.20

1.20

Defensive weakness

0.80

1.20

Shots on target for

4.80

3.20

SoT conceded pressure

4.20

4.60

Home splitW-W2.00 scored / 0.00 conceded

Away splitD-L-D0.67 scored / 1.00 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 2.09. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.86% based on n=299 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Portugal Segunda Liga (pt). Odds movement is currently classified as Dropping with Low volatility.

Pick1

Odd2.09

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.86% · n=299

V4 BandMEDIUMROI 4.86% · n=299

Odds TrendDropping

VolatilityLow

AI Match Insight

In a fairly competitive price range, recent form gives Leixoes a useful statistical edge. There is some statistical support behind the pick, but the historical signal is not strong enough to be aggressive. Leixoes is also generating more shots on target, adding offensive support to the pick.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.

3D: -10.4% 7D: -4.1% 15D: -13.6% 30D: -2.8%

Model insight

Leixoes – Lusitania Lourosa Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 2.09. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 4.86% and 4.86%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample307

Win Rate47.9%

Profit-9.94u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Wexford FC - Kerry FC	1.90	3.37%
WIN	Alamein FC (W) - Preston Lions (W)	1.90	3.37%
WIN	Houston FC - Hill Country Lobos	1.85	3.37%
WIN	BFA Vilnius - FK Ekranas	2.25	3.15%
LOSS	Nautico - EC Juventude	2.27	3.15%
WIN	FK Jelgava - SC Grobinas	2.05	3.37%
WIN	Cuiaba - America MG	2.13	3.37%
LOSS	Jacuipense U20 - Fluminense De Feira U20	2.30	2.49%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
Slask Wroclaw II - KKS 1925 Kalisz	1	1.98	4.86%	09 May 13:00
FC Spartak Trnava - MSK Zilina	1	1.93	2.30%	10 May 19:00

Pick

1 @ 2.09

Kickoff

Mag 15, 2026 11:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 4.86% • n=299

Confidence V4

CONF V4: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V4

4.86% • n=299

Start

Started 57d 18h ago

Updated

Updated 57d 20h ago