BFA Vilnius – FK Garliava

Model: TIPPSA

BFA Vilnius vs FK Garliava

PREDICTION
2
@ 2.27
StatusArchived prediction
KickoffMag 19, 2026 8:00 PM
ResultLOSS2 - 1
StartStarted 53d ago
V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.43% · n=79
V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 3.43% · n=79
Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.
Updated Updated 53d 4h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is FK Garliava. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: FK Garliava

Shots Rating

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

H
A
Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

40/100
Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)
Start odds2.15First seen
Current2.40Now
Max odds2.50Highest point
Min odds2.10Lowest point
VolatilityHighStable range
TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

BFA VilniusHOME
VS
FK GarliavaAWAY
WLLLW
Recent form
LWWWW
Avg goals scored
0.80
2.40
Defensive weakness
2.40
0.80
Shots on target for
3.80
6.40
SoT conceded pressure
4.00
2.20
Home splitW-L-L-W-W1.40 scored / 1.80 conceded
Away splitL-W-W-L-W1.80 scored / 0.80 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.27. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 3.43% based on n=79 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Lithuania Cup (lt). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with High volatility.

Pick2
Odd2.27
V2 BandMEDIUMROI 3.43% · n=79
V4 BandMEDIUMROI 3.43% · n=79
Odds TrendRising
VolatilityHigh

AI Match Insight

The price is not extreme, and recent results provide a reasonable statistical basis for the pick. The model gives this selection a reasonable profile, although the confidence level remains measured. Shot-on-target data gives additional support to FK Garliava's attacking profile.

Current Combo momentum is strong. Recent model performance has improved significantly over the last 7-15 days, suggesting the system is currently adapting well to recent match conditions.
3D: 20.4% 7D: 20.8% 15D: 7.8% 30D: 1.4%
Model insight

BFA Vilnius – FK Garliava Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.27. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 3.43% and 3.43%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. High pre-match volatility suggests increased uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.
Sample150
Win Rate42.0%
Profit-7.34u
Historical Similar Predictions
ResultMatchOddExp. ROI
WINCraigavon City (W) - Ballymoney United (W)2.343.43%
LOSSUnion La Calera - Universidad de Chile2.293.59%
LOSSVotoraty U23 - Guarulhos U232.082.63%
LOSSVidar - Pors Grenland2.082.63%
WINChongqing Tonglianglong - Beijing Guoan2.523.43%
LOSSIF Gnistan - SJK2.514.13%
LOSSLech Poznan UAM (W) - Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W)2.253.59%
LOSSChrobry Glogow - LKS Lodz2.192.63%
Pick
2 @ 2.27
Kickoff
Mag 19, 2026 8:00 PM
Confidence
CONF: MEDIUM
Exp. ROI V2
Exp. ROI 3.43% • n=79
Confidence V4
Exp. ROI V4
3.43% • n=79
Start
Started 53d ago
Updated
Updated 53d 4h ago
Torna in alto