Model: TIPPSA

Paduano EC U20 vs Belford Roxo U20

PREDICTION

@ 2.73

StatusArchived prediction

KickoffGiu 11, 2026 9:45 PM

ResultLOSS1 - 1

StartStarted 51d 20h ago

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.13% · n=261

V4 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.13% · n=261

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 52d 4h ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Belford Roxo U20. This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Belford Roxo U20Goal/Shots Index — H: — | A: —

Shots Rating

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Shots on Target

Rating unavailable for this archived pick.

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

47/100

Low value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds2.63First seen

Current2.79Now

Max odds2.79Highest point

Min odds2.63Lowest point

VolatilityMediumStable range

TrendRisingShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Paduano EC U20HOME

Belford Roxo U20AWAY

DDLDW

Recent form

DWWLW

Avg goals scored

0.80

1.20

Defensive weakness

0.80

0.60

Shots on target for

3.40

6.20

SoT conceded pressure

2.80

2.40

Home splitD-D-W1.33 scored / 1.00 conceded

Away splitD-L-W-L1.00 scored / 1.75 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 2 at odds 2.73. The V4 confidence band is MEDIUM with an expected ROI of 4.13% based on n=261 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2 U20 (br). Odds movement is currently classified as Rising with Medium volatility.

Pick2

Odd2.73

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.13% · n=261

V4 BandMEDIUMROI 4.13% · n=261

Odds TrendRising

VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

While the odds remain elevated, the underlying metrics suggest the selection may be more competitive than the market implies. The confidence profile is moderate, so the pick has statistical support but should not be treated as a low-risk prediction. Belford Roxo U20 has produced stronger recent offensive pressure in terms of shots on target.

Current Combo momentum is positive. Recent Combo selections remain profitable across multiple recent windows, indicating stable short-term performance.

3D: 83.8% 7D: 2.4% 15D: 6.1% 30D: 15.1%

Model insight

Paduano EC U20 – Belford Roxo U20 Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 2 at odds 2.73. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSA model profile. Both V2 and V4 profiles currently show MEDIUM confidence, with historical expected ROI values of 4.13% and 4.13%. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. The market moved significantly against the initial model price before kickoff. Historically, large late odds increases may indicate external factors not fully captured by the statistical framework. Moderate odds volatility indicates some market disagreement during the pre-match phase. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample102

Win Rate38.2%

Profit+0.91u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
WIN	Hertha Wels - SV Austria Salzburg	2.76	4.96%
LOSS	FC Gute - Kungsängens IF	2.80	3.61%
LOSS	Aarau - Stade Lausanne-Ouchy	2.76	4.96%
WIN	Panama U20 - Canada U20	2.71	4.13%
LOSS	Gremio - Fluminense	2.54	3.43%
LOSS	Kalmar FF - Mjällby AIF	2.71	4.13%
LOSS	Kalmar FF - Malmo FF	2.82	4.96%
WIN	IFK Varnamo - Ljungskile	2.54	3.59%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
Retro FC Brasil - America RN	2	2.70	3.31%	30 Apr 02:30

Pick

2 @ 2.73

Kickoff

Giu 11, 2026 9:45 PM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 4.13% • n=261

Confidence V4

CONF V4: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V4

4.13% • n=261

Start

Started 51d 20h ago

Updated

Updated 52d 4h ago