Model: TIPPSH

Stabaek (W) vs Fortuna Aalesund (W)

PREDICTION

@ 3.00

StatusUpcoming

KickoffGiu 28, 2026 4:00 PM

ResultPending

StartStarts in 1d 10h

V2 ConfidenceMEDIUMExpected ROI 4.53% · n=669

V4 ConfidenceHIGHExpected ROI 6.61% · n=186

Confidence bands summarize the historical reliability of similar model predictions. ROI and sample size refer to previous tips in the same model profile.

Updated Updated 11m ago

📊 Match Analysis

Model explanation based on shots ratings, market context and recent team data.

Game Context

The model side is Stabaek (W). This section focuses on statistical support rather than repeating pick, odds or confidence bands.

Edge: Stabaek (W)

Shots Rating

Shot volume edge from recent matches.

Home edge

Shots on Target

Higher weight signal based on shots on target.

Home edge

Value Index

Convenience indicator based on expected ROI (V4) and market odds.

58/100

Good value

Odds Movement

Odds history (MaxOdd + StochasticOdds)

Start odds3.00First seen

Current3.00Now

Max odds3.14Highest point

Min odds3.00Lowest point

VolatilityMediumStable range

TrendStableShort term

📊 Team Form (Last 5)

Recent form and core attacking indicators before kickoff.

Stabaek (W)HOME

Fortuna Aalesund (W)AWAY

LWWWW

Recent form

WWWLW

Avg goals scored

2.00

3.40

Defensive weakness

1.00

1.20

Shots on target for

4.60

5.60

SoT conceded pressure

3.20

4.40

Home splitL-W-W-L-D1.20 scored / 0.80 conceded

Away splitW-W-W-W-W3.40 scored / 1.20 conceded

Quick Analysis

The StochasticBet model recommends 1 at odds 3.00. The V4 confidence band is HIGH with an expected ROI of 6.61% based on n=186 historical similar picks. The match belongs to Norway Cup Women (no). Odds movement is currently classified as Stable with Medium volatility.

Pick1

Odd3.00

V2 BandMEDIUMROI 4.53% · n=669

V4 BandHIGHROI 6.61% · n=186

Odds TrendStable

VolatilityMedium

AI Match Insight

The current odds imply an underdog profile, although recent performances indicate a more competitive matchup. The model gives this selection a reasonable profile, although the confidence level remains measured.

Current Combo momentum is weak. Recent short-term performance has been below expectations, suggesting that current match conditions may be less favorable for the model.

3D: 75.0% 7D: -18.6% 15D: -4.8% 30D: -3.3%

Model insight

Stabaek (W) – Fortuna Aalesund (W) Betting Analysis

The model currently selects 1 at odds 3.00. This prediction is generated by the TIPPSH model profile. The V2 confidence band is MEDIUM, with a historical expected ROI of 4.53% across 669 similar predictions. The V4 confidence band is HIGH, with a historical expected ROI of 6.61% across 186 historical samples. Historical expected profitability for this profile is positive, but the edge appears more moderate. The model profile is supported by a broad historical sample, making the long-term estimate more informative. The odds history chart above summarizes market movement, volatility and the latest available price before kickoff. The bookmaker panel currently monitored by StochasticBet includes Bet365, Pinnacle, Bwin, Unibet and 1XBet. Market movement remained relatively stable before kickoff, suggesting balanced sentiment around the initial model projection. Model performance can deteriorate during unstable football calendar phases, such as early-season matches, post-international-break rounds and late-season fixtures with unusual motivation or rotation patterns.

Sample12

Win Rate33.3%

Profit-0.30u

Historical Similar Predictions

Result	Match	Odd	Exp. ROI
LOSS	Renaissance Zemamra - OC Safi	2.85	4.53%
WIN	Atlantis FC/PM - Tips Vantaa	2.98	4.53%
WIN	Okayama Yunogo Belle (W) - Setagaya Sfida (W)	3.05	2.04%
LOSS	Hedensted IF - Norresundby	2.81	4.53%
WIN	FC Baranovichi - FC Minsk	2.90	4.53%
LOSS	Burkina Faso (W) - Mali (W)	2.77	4.53%
WIN	FC Fujizakura Yamanashi (W) - Diosa Izumo (W)	2.77	4.53%
LOSS	JJK - VJS Vantaa	2.78	4.53%

Active Similar Predictions

Match	Pick	Odd	Exp. ROI	Kickoff
Eastern Suburbs Auckland - Birkenhead United	1	2.79	4.53%	27 Jun 05:00

Pick

1 @ 3.00

Kickoff

Giu 28, 2026 4:00 PM

Confidence

CONF: MEDIUM

Exp. ROI V2

Exp. ROI 4.53% • n=669

Confidence V4

CONF V4: HIGH

Exp. ROI V4

6.61% • n=186

Start

Starts in 1d 10h

Updated

Updated 11m ago